Trump’s Deportation Plan to Strain US, Mexico Economies

Incoming US President Donald Trump has proposed a large-scale deportation initiative projected to cost US$88 billion. Of this, US$7.33 billion would be allocated for deporting over 4 million Mexican nationals currently residing and working in the United States. This plan is anticipated to have significant impacts on both countries, as it would reduce the labor force in the United States and disrupt remittance flows to Mexico.

The American Immigration Council’s report states that Mexicans represent approximately 40% of the undocumented migrant population in the United States, making their deportation one of the most costly actions anticipated under Trump’s administration. In 2022, the undocumented Mexican population was estimated at 4.74 million, with an average deportation cost of US$1,432 per person.

Experts note that if the deportation plan includes other nationalities, such as Guatemalans, Salvadorans, Hondurans, Venezuelans, Colombians, and others, the annual cost could exceed US$88 billion. “Deporting one million immigrants annually would require a significantly larger budget, primarily for constructing detention facilities. Processing and expelling the estimated 13.3 million undocumented immigrants would take over a decade and require the establishment of hundreds or thousands of new detention centers.” Experts stressed that if the plan extends over a 10-year period, costs would further escalate. “Over 10.6 years, with a 2.5% annual inflation rate, the total expense would reach US$967.9 billion.” 

Undocumented migrants comprise 4.6% of the US workforce, providing labor in sectors such as construction, agriculture, and hospitality. Undocumented migrants are also more likely to be of working age than US-born citizens. In 2022, 89.4% of undocumented immigrants were aged 16-64, compared to 61.3% of US citizens. Deporting all undocumented migrants would lead to a 62% reduction in household income for mixed-status families, alongside US$46 billion in federal tax losses, US$29 billion in state and local tax losses, US$22 billion in Social Security contributions, and a GDP reduction of 4.2% to 6.8%.

In Mexico, remittances income would also be significantly impacted. In 2023, remittances reached US$53.3 billion with over 90% of this income originating from the United States, reported Banxico. The deportation of undocumented Mexican nationals is expected to disrupt this financial lifeline, endangering the economic stability of many families in Mexico.

The American Immigration Council also highlighted that a large-scale deportation effort could shift public perception of the government and strain the social fabric, potentially leading to vigilantism and hate crimes. 

Claudia Sheinbaum to Dialog With Trump’s Transition Team

Recently, Donald Trump announced that Thomas Homan will lead border control efforts and negotiations. Homan, who served as Director of ICE from 2017 to 2018, was a strong advocate of the "zero tolerance" policy that resulted in the separation of thousands of families, a measure later rescinded due to public backlash. He has expressed continued support for Trump’s immigration agenda, endorsing large-scale deportations of undocumented individuals. Homan argues that mass deportations should be viewed as essential for upholding national security and order rather than as a threat to immigrant communities.

In response, Claudia Sheinbaum announced plans to establish contact with Trump’s transition team ahead of the new administration. “We will stand firm in defending Mexicans; it is well-documented that migrants play a vital role in the economies of both the United States and Mexico,” she stated.