UN Report Warns Cooling Demand Could Triple by 2050

The Global Cooling Watch 2025 developed by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) warns that heatwaves are the deadliest climate hazard, and that expanding cooling access must happen sustainably and equitably. The report underscores that more than 1 billion people already lack adequate cooling access, a figure that could triple by 2050, contributing to hundreds of thousands of heat-related deaths per year.

The document, released at COP30 in Belém, Brazil, finds that global cooling capacity could rise from 22TW in 2022 to 68TW in 2050. Even with efficiency improvements and the phasedown of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sector emissions could increase from 4.1Gt of CO₂e to 7.2Gt by mid-century. UNEP states that heat exposure is rising as populations and incomes grow in hotter regions, particularly in Africa and South Asia, where unmanaged air-conditioning adoption could strain grids and trigger power outages.

Cooling demand during heatwaves already stresses power systems, making grid resilience a public health concern. UNEP notes that passive cooling, low-energy options and hybrid systems that combine fans and air conditioning can reduce energy use and lower infrastructure needs.

The report emphasizes that access to cooling has become essential infrastructure, including for industrial processes and cold chains that preserve food and medicines. Urban heat islands can raise temperatures by 5-10 °C, putting residents in informal housing, older people, outdoor workers, and smallholder farmers at higher risk.

The proposed Sustainable Cooling Pathway combines passive design, low-energy technologies, hybrid cooling systems, and a faster HFC phaseout. UNEP estimates this approach could cut projected 2050 emissions by 64%, and save about US$17 billion in cumulative energy costs while avoiding up to US$26 billion in grid investments. With full power-sector decarbonization, emissions from cooling could fall by up to 97% relative to a business-as-usual scenario.

Passive cooling measures could expand sustainable cooling access to 3 billion additional people by 2050 and reduce indoor temperatures by 0.5 to 8°C. Hybrid systems can reduce energy use by 30%, and solar or evaporative options could provide off-grid solutions. At scale, the pathway would reduce projected cooling equipment needs in 2050 by 41%.

UNEP reports that 72 countries have joined the Global Cooling Pledge, which seeks a 68% reduction in cooling-related emissions by 2050 relative to 2022 levels, with interim milestones of 18% by 2030 and 55% by 2040. A total of 134 countries mention cooling in their national climate strategies, but only 54 have policies covering passive cooling, appliance standards and refrigerant transition.

“As lethal heatwaves become more frequent and extreme, the access to cooling must be considered essential infrastructure, in the same level as water, energy and sanitation. But we cannot solve the heat crisis with air conditioning, because it would increase greenhouse gas emissions and costs. Passive, efficient and nature-based solutions can help us meet rising cooling needs, while moving toward climate goals. No excuses: it is time to beat the heat,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director, UNEP. 

The report also highlights the Beat the Heat initiative, launched at COP30 to translate the Global Cooling Pledge into local action. The program provides technical support for cities to assess heat risk, integrate cooling into urban planning and procure efficient technologies. More than 185 cities and 83 partners have joined, along with 72 signatory countries.

UNEP underscores that mandatory passive cooling in building codes is the most immediate lever to curb mechanical cooling, with appliance standards aligned to best available technology. The agency calls for greater alignment across national climate strategies, building codes, adaptation plans and the Kigali Amendment.

City leaders, national officials and regional representatives emphasized equity and systemwide resilience. The report concludes that passive and low-energy strategies are central for expanding cooling access, reducing emissions, and supporting the people most exposed to extreme heat.