US Tariffs on Mexican Goods Could Impact Job Growth in 2025

The potential imposition of US tariffs on Mexican products could slow job creation in 2025, particularly in the automotive, manufacturing, and agro-industrial sectors, warns Fernando Bermúdez, Director of Institutional Relations, ManpowerGroup, following a report on steady hiring intentions for 2Q25. 

“The industries most likely to be affected are those with a business model closely tied to the United States, particularly those that export heavily from Mexico to that country. The first response will likely be to adjust prices to offset the impact of tariffs, rather than reducing investment. Over time, more structural measures could be implemented, including adjustments to investments and workforce,” explains Bermúdez.

Bermúdez noted that the impact of tariffs will vary across industries. Agricultural companies, with fewer resources to absorb additional costs, will face more challenges, while automotive firms may struggle more in adapting. He advised employers to proceed cautiously, given the uncertainty over whether the tariff issue will be resolved in April.

ManpowerGroup estimates that between 200,000 and 350,000 jobs will be created this year, but this figure could decline if tariffs are imposed. For 2Q25, the firm projects the creation of 90,000 jobs, with Mexico City having the highest hiring expectations. Earlier, ManpowerGroup had reported steady hiring intentions for 2Q25. The report also noted that regional hiring prospects remain strong, with India leading global rankings at a 43% hiring outlook, followed by the United States and Mexico at 34% and 33%, respectively.

Amid economic uncertainties, ManpowerGroup reports that company expansion remains the primary driver of increased staffing, cited by 38% of employers. In contrast, 35% of employers expect reductions due to economic concerns. "This is tied to planned public investments. There are investment packages and plans that undoubtedly boost expectations. Additionally, some companies are seeking to establish a stronger presence in Mexico City, such as the hardware industry, which is driving investment and attracting businesses to the capital," Bermúdez explained.

According to ManpowerGroup’s employment outlook survey, mid-sized companies (250+ employees) report the most robust hiring plans, while the largest enterprises (5,000+ employees) are more cautious, with only 25% expecting to expand staffing.