IMEF Warns Judicial Reforms, USMCA Threaten Mexico FDI

Mexico’s investment climate is facing pressure due to recent judicial reforms and uncertainty surrounding the USMCA renegotiation, according to the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF). The organization cited consecutive months of declining fixed investment and cautioned that foreign direct investment (FDI) could slow further if legal and trade risks are not addressed.

“The government must implement measures that eliminate uncertainty and reactivate investment on two fronts: ensuring that the USMCA will have a successful renegotiation and that reforms will promote investment instead of discouraging it. So far, neither has succeeded,” said Gabriela Gutiérrez, President, IMEF.

IMEF projects Mexico’s economy will grow 0.5% in 2025, with annual inflation at 4%, Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico)’s interest rate at 7%, creation of 160,000 formal jobs, and the peso trading at 19 per dollar.

The institute highlighted that recent judicial reforms, particularly amendments to the Ley de Amparo, have weakened legal certainty for investors. The changes modify the suspension system, which determines how courts handle challenges to government acts. Article 128 now requires judges to weigh the effects of suspension against social interest, public order, and collective interest—a provision IMEF interprets as subordinating individual rights to the collective.

“This opens the possibility that suspensions against government actions could be deemed contrary to community interests, making it nearly impossible for individuals or corporations to defend themselves against arbitrary government measures,” Gutiérrez explained.

IMEF also flagged recent fiscal actions targeting multinational companies, including Samsung and Axa, as well as potential government intervention in energy firms, as additional factors increasing legal and commercial uncertainty.