Mexico 10th in Global Export Rankings: WTO Report

According to the Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report from the World Trade Organization (WTO) for 2024, Mexico has dropped from ninth to tenth place among the world’s leading merchandise exporters. The country was surpassed by Hong Kong, China, which climbed from tenth to eighth place. In 2024, Hong Kong registered external sales totaling US$641 billion, while Mexico posted exports valued at US$617 billion.

The WTO warns that the outlook for global trade has significantly deteriorated due to escalating tariffs and growing trade policy uncertainty (TPU). These developments, especially the suspension of “reciprocal tariffs” by the United States, have led the WTO to revise its forecast for world merchandise trade volume in 2025, now predicting a slight decline of 0.2%, followed by a modest recovery of 2.5% in 2026.

Without these recent policy changes, the 2025 growth estimate would have been nearly three percentage points higher, underscoring the substantial economic impact of geopolitical tensions and shifting trade alliances.

The WTO states that North America plays a central role in this revised forecast. The region is expected to subtract 1.7% from global merchandise trade growth in 2025, turning the overall figure negative. In contrast, Asia and Europe continue to contribute positively, though their impacts are reduced, with Asia’s contribution halved to just 0.6%. Other regions, including Africa, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), the Middle East, and South and Central America and the Caribbean, also see a drop in their positive contribution.

The ongoing disruption in US-China trade is expected to spur significant trade diversion, particularly benefiting regions outside North America. Chinese exports are projected to grow by 4% to 9% across other global regions as trade routes shift. Meanwhile, US imports from China are set to decline in key sectors such as textiles, apparel, and electrical equipment, potentially opening new opportunities for emerging markets and least-developed countries (LDCs) to step in and fill the gap.

While services trade is not directly impacted by tariffs, it is not immune to the broader effects of declining goods trade. Lower demand for related services, such as transportation, logistics, and business travel, combined with decreased investment activity, is expected to slow the growth of commercial services trade. The WTO now forecasts growth of 4.0% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, significantly below previous expectations of 5.1% and 4.8%, respectively.

The WTO projects that world GDP at market exchange rates will grow by 2.2% in 2025, falling 0.6% short of the no-tariff-change baseline. The most pronounced impact is expected in North America, with a projected decline of 1.6%. Asia and South and Central America are also expected to see diminished growth of 0.4 and 0.2%, respectively.

While the implementation of reciprocal tariffs may have a limited immediate effect on global GDP, the spread of TPU could double the economic losses, resulting in a 1.3% drop compared to baseline expectations.