Mexico Under Trump Pressure: The Challenge of Corporate Diplomacy

Trade between Mexico and the United States is at a critical crossroads. Historically marked by cycles of cooperation and tension, the relationship now faces a fresh set of challenges with Donald Trump’s return to the White House and the imminent review of the USMCA in 2026. Companies operating across borders must now prepare for an environment where predictability is a luxury and adaptability a necessity — politically, economically, and socially.

Since his campaign began, Trump has made promises that seem designed to close doors, erect walls, and question long-standing international trade and political agreements. This rhetoric has sparked concern within the private sector, particularly in Mexico, where the two nations share an intricately connected commercial relationship. Washington’s message has been clear: reduce Mexico’s dependence on strategic sectors and reclaim jobs on American territory. Yet, the economic reality tells a different story. The deep productive integration between these countries is hard to reverse without incurring significant costs for American businesses. Amid the political noise, the private sector must focus on what truly matters: ensuring operational stability in an environment where the rules can change at any moment.

Uncertainty is palpable in Mexico, largely due to the significant role that the agreement between Mexico, the United States, and Canada plays in the national economy. During his campaign, Trump declared his intention to renegotiate or, if his demands were not met, to withdraw from the deal. This stance introduces several concrete risks for Mexican companies. 

1. Is “America First” imposing a diet on Americans?

For instance, if the new administration imposes a 25% tariff on Mexican products, industries such as automotive, technology, agriculture, and manufacturing could face severe setbacks. Overnight, the competitiveness of Mexican products in the US market would be jeopardized, with potentially adverse effects on the food security of Trump’s voter base. According to data from the Ministry of Economy, exports of fruits and vegetables reached US$12 billion in 2024.

2. The weakness of the Mexican peso vis-à-vis Corporate America

Every time Trump takes a strong public stance, market reactions cause the dollar to appreciate against the peso. If this trend persists, companies with dollar-denominated debts will see their costs rise. While media polarization was a hallmark of his first term, in this second phase — backed by major American corporations — his positioning could represent a real threat rather than isolated rhetoric.

3. Growth and expansion on hold

Political instability and uncertainty over the fulfillment of USMCA clauses might discourage investors who, facing this new landscape, prefer to allocate their funds to regions with clearer, more stable regulations. This could directly impact Mexico’s economic growth and job creation if foreign direct investment (FDI) declines. Global trends support this concern: A UNCTAD study reported that while global FDI fell by 8% in 2024 and decreased by 9% in Latin America and the Caribbean, Mexico experienced an 11% increase, albeit with a slowdown in announcements of new greenfield investments.

The best defense for companies and governments in such a volatile scenario is anticipation, and key strategies include:

• Diversifying markets to reduce dependence solely on the United States — exploring opportunities in Europe, Asia, and other parts of Latin America.

• Fostering innovation and efficiency, as those that deliver superior products and services in times of crisis tend to make a greater impact.

• Maintaining an international network of contacts, as strengthening ties with suppliers and clients across different regions can reduce vulnerability to potential trade barriers.

• Above all, effective corporate diplomacy and lobbying in Mexico will remain crucial.

For the Mexican government, an open dialog with the private sector must be a top priority. Recent initiatives, such as the outreach by the Business Coordinating Council (CCE), the establishment of the Regional Economic Development and Relocation Advisory Council, and proactive discussions led by the Ministries of Economy, Energy, and Environment in national and international decision-making forums, demonstrate this commitment. 

Such discussions foster agreements that balance trade and establish a unified front among Mexican businesses and global companies operating in Mexico, mitigating uncertainty and potential economic impacts.

For Mexico, the current situation represents an urgent challenge: finding ways to protect its economy and citizens from potential hostile measures by its main trading partner. On a global scale, the lesson is clear: the international economic order can shift faster than we imagine. The only constant is the need to understand the new social context, adapt, innovate, and work together to face the forthcoming uncertainty and risk. 

Preparing for a potential tightening of US trade policies is essential. History has shown that Trump is not hesitant to use tariffs as a tool of pressure, and companies must develop robust contingency plans to react quickly. This involves strengthening dispute resolution mechanisms within the USMCA, exploring options to reconfigure supply chains, and ensuring that certifications of origin comply with the most stringent US regulations.

If there is one thing that remains evident in this new phase of the bilateral relationship, it is that improvisation is not an option. The companies that succeed in navigating this challenging environment will be those that think strategically, diversify their risks, and commit to a long-term vision. In times of uncertainty, intelligent negotiation and adaptability distinguish firms that merely survive from those that establish themselves as key players in the future of trade between Mexico and the United States.