Trump Revisits 2019 Formula With Mexico: Tariffs, Pressure

For the second time, Donald Trump persuaded Mexico to strengthen its border security in exchange for delaying tariffs. President Claudia Sheinbaum offered to deploy 10,000 National Guard members, with the focus now on combating fentanyl trafficking, unlike in 2019 when the focus was on migration.

In response to Trump’s tariff threats, Claudia Sheinbaum held a phone call to discuss alternative agreements, resulting in a delay of the planned 25% tariff on Mexican goods. Sheinbaum explained that while she was unable to secure a permanent suspension, she successfully negotiated a one-month delay.

“When he asked how long I wanted the pause to last, I said, ‘Let’s pause it indefinitely.’ He asked, ‘For how long?’ I replied, ‘Let’s pause it for one month.’ And I am confident that in this month, we will be able to deliver positive results—for your people and for the people of Mexico,” she assured.

The first agreement reached between both countries prioritizes strengthening the northern border. “Mexico will immediately deploy 10,000 National Guard members to the northern border to combat drug trafficking, particularly fentanyl," President Sheinbaum stated.

Back in 2019, Mexico deployed National Guard units to the border to manage migrant flows. In June, 2019, both countries signed a joint declaration in which Mexico committed to strengthening law enforcement efforts to curb irregular migration. As part of this commitment, at least 27,000 National Guard members were stationed at both borders, reducing migrant flows by 46%. When Trump first threatened tariffs in May 2019, there were 144,110 migrant encounters at the Mexico-US border. By the end of his administration in January 2021, that number had fallen to 78,410.

Sheinbaum emphasized that during the phone call, she not only discussed security forces but also outlined Mexico's national prevention campaign to curb fentanyl consumption. “Toward the end of our conversation, I mentioned our fentanyl campaign, and he said, ‘Send it to me.’ I replied, ‘It is crucial that young people understand the harm fentanyl causes. We have been working on it.’ So, we will send him our campaign, which is being implemented in schools and through the media,” she said.

The second agreement stipulates that the United States will work to stop the flow of high-powered firearms into Mexico. This issue is a major concern for Mexico, as these weapons are directly linked to the rising homicide rates and the firepower of criminal groups. According to the National Public Security System, of the 30,057 homicides reported in Mexico in 2024, 21,930 (72%) were committed with firearms. “Why are these weapons getting into Mexico? What we have agreed on is to work together to address this. We agreed to reinforce the border, focusing particularly on fentanyl, to ensure security in border areas,” Sheinbaum remarked.

Both governments also agreed to establish a working group to focus on security and trade issues. Mexico will be represented by Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, while the United States will be represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, and Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. Ebrard shared that a meeting might take place next week once Howard Lutnick is confirmed. "Let us be clear—there are no guarantees. What we have is an opportunity, and we intend to make the most of it," said Ebrard.