Chedraui’s 2026 Strategy Centers on Supercito Expansion

Chedraui announced its 2026 strategic guidance, centered on an aggressive expansion of selling space and a pivot toward proximity formats to capture a larger share of the convenience market. The Mexican retailer plans to open 152 new locations during the year, with nearly 90% of domestic openings concentrated in its Supercito format, positioning the company to compete more directly with convenience store leaders.

The company projects a 5.7% expansion of its sales floor in Mexico and a 1.6% increase in the United States, resulting in total consolidated growth of 4.3%. To support this expansion, Chedraui set its capital expenditure (CAPEX) for 2026 at 3.3% of estimated consolidated sales, broadly in line with its 2025 investment level.

In Mexico, Chedraui’s expansion plan includes 147 new stores. The breakdown consists of 130 Supercito units, nine Chedraui stores, seven Super Chedraui locations, and one Arteli branch. By 3Q25, Supercito had already become the group’s most widespread format, operating 277 branches compared with 214 flagship Chedraui stores. The move into proximity retail is aimed at challenging the long-standing dominance of players such as OXXO.

For 2026, Chedraui expects Mexico’s economic environment to remain broadly similar to that of 2025. The company forecasts same-store sales (SSS) growth of between 3% and 4%, while total sales in the Mexican retail segment are projected to rise between 8% and 9%. To protect margins, Chedraui is implementing internal operational efficiency initiatives to offset the impact of rising labor costs.

The retailer also reaffirmed its participation in the Package Against Inflation and Scarcity (PACIC), an agreement renewed by President Claudia Sheinbaum in November 2025. The pact, involving 20 producers and 12 retail chains, caps the price of a 24-product basic basket at MX$910 (US$XX). Referring to the agreement, Sheinbaum said in November, “With these agreements and the will to invest in our country, we are going to do even better in 2026.”

Market Share and Competition

Chedraui's Supercito expansion enters a highly competitive convenience and proximity retail market in Mexico. FEMSA’s OXXO dominates the segment, operating more than 24,000 stores as of late 2025 and capturing nearly 29% of the overall retail market through dense urban coverage and service offerings such as bill payments. Walmart de México y Centroamérica (Walmex) follows through its Bodega Aurrera Express format, with roughly 1,480 units within a broader network of 2,606 Bodega stores, targeting price-sensitive consumers and supported by growing private-label penetration.

Soriana, along with discount chains such as Tiendas 3B, completes the group of leading players in a sector that remains moderately fragmented but highly competitive. Industry estimates point to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.68% for convenience stores through 2033.

Chedraui is leveraging Supercito’s average size of about 350 square meters, allowing for broader product assortments and faster replenishment cycles. The format targets urban areas where OXXO’s smaller footprint favors impulse purchases but limits basket size. Unlike OXXO’s service-heavy model, Supercito emphasizes groceries and perishables at competitive prices, positioning it as a hybrid challenger as Mexico’s retail market adds an estimated 3,000 stores in 2026.

Chedraui's investments aim to narrow OXXO’s lead, analysts note persistent challenges, including wage pressures and the scale advantages of larger competitors. Success will depend largely on effective penetration of high-density urban areas such as Mexico City, where convenience formats are growing faster than hypermarkets.

US Operations and Migration Headwinds

In the United States, Chedraui USA  expects a more challenging environment during the first half of 2026. The company cited stricter migration policies under the administration of President Donald Trump as a key risk that could weigh on store traffic and consumer spending.

“We consider that the stricter migration policy will continue to impact same-store sales, at least during the first half of the year, and toward the second half we expect to see greater stability,” the company noted in its guidance.

Despite these headwinds, Chedraui USA projects same-store sales growth of 1.0% to 2.0% and total sales growth of 2.0% to 3.0% in dollar terms. The physical expansion in the US includes five new units: four under the "El Super" brand and one under the "Fiesta" brand. The company expects a margin recovery in the United States, supported by the Rancho Cucamonga Distribution Center (RCDC) and the elimination of duplicate costs, forecasting an EBITDA margin expansion of 30 to 60 basis points for the division. By June 2025, it operated 384 stores across California, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas.

Financial Outlook and Market Analysis

On a consolidated level, Chedraui anticipates an EBITDA margin expansion of 15 to 35 basis points for 2026, an improvement over the 10 to 20 basis point advance seen in 2025. The company maintains a solid financial structure, reporting a net bank debt to EBITDA ratio of approximately -0.3x, which provides flexibility for potential inorganic growth.

A Banorte analysis indicated that “the 2026 guidance confirms a scenario of stable growth aligned with market expectations. This is supported by store expansion and gradual improvements in profitability; however, relevant challenges persist that could limit operational performance in the short term. Among them, we highlight the pressure on expenses derived from the increase in the minimum wage, as well as a more restrictive migration policy in the United States.”

In the equity market, Chedraui shares have advanced 1.47% so far in 2026, trading at MX$125.12 per share. The company’s origins trace back to 1920 with the opening of "El Puerto de Beyrout" in Xalapa, Veracruz, and it has since evolved into one of Mexico’s largest self-service chains.

Operational Efficiency as a Competitive Edge

Analysts from GBM highlighted that the RCDC center will be a key trigger for synergies, enabling a more efficient logistical operation.

Chedraui aims to sustain a competitive posture through aggressive pricing while absorbing labor cost increases without sacrificing profitability levels. The focus on smaller store formats increases market penetration in urban areas and allows for a more agile response to changing consumer habits in the "conversational commerce" era.

PROFECO recently cited Chedraui among the retailers monitored for pricing transparency, though the agency also flagged specific branches for simulated discounts during previous commercial events like El Buen Fin. As part of its forward-looking strategy, the company is doubling down on verified offers and price stability to strengthen consumer trust and maintain its status as one of the most accessible retail options in the country.