Mexico Franchises Eye 6% Growth on World Cup 2026, AI

The Mexican franchise sector is projected to grow by 6% in 2026, supported by an expected boost in domestic consumption linked to the FIFA World Cup and the accelerated adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Betsy Eslava, President, Mexican Franchise Association (AMF), described the forecast for new unit openings as "conservative," reflecting a cautious economic outlook following a period of moderate expansion.

The 2026 projection follows a year of adjustment. At the beginning of 2025, the sector expected growth of 10%, but closed the year at 8%. This performance came amid a broader economic environment in which Mexico’s GDP growth slowed to 0.2% by the end of the third quarter. Despite macroeconomic volatility, the AMF says the franchise model remains resilient due to its standardization, scalability, and replicability.

Strategic Growth Drivers: World Cup and AI

Growth strategies for 2026 will focus on digitalization, omnichannel expansion, and AI-driven initiatives. Franchises are prioritizing investments in e-commerce, data analytics, and remote training platforms to strengthen national supply chains and support the rollout of new locations.

The FIFA World Cup, co-hosted by Mexico, the United States, and Canada, is expected to drive higher consumer activity beginning in the second half of 2026. According to the AMF, franchises are preparing localized activations in Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey, including themed menus and digital engagement strategies. These three cities will host a total of 13 matches during the tournament.

By the end of 2025, the Mexican franchise ecosystem had reached several milestones in its contribution to the national economy:

• Brands: More than 1,500 active franchise brands

• Points of sale: 95,000 units nationwide

• Employment: Over 1 million direct jobs

• Supply chain: Links to more than 270,000 domestic suppliers

• Success rate: An 85% survival rate over a five-year period

The AMF views its relationship with the United States as "strategic and very close," and is pursuing a trilateral cooperation framework with the United States and Canada. Formal discussions are expected to take place during the franchise convention in Las Vegas in late February.

On the domestic front, the association plans to launch trade missions in early 2026, starting with visits to Culiacán and Tijuana. Internationally, the sector is looking to China in May to explore technological and AI partnerships, following a previous mission to Jakarta, Indonesia, under the Hecho en México (Made in Mexico) brand.

In addition, the AMF has opened its National Franchise Award to non-affiliated brands for the first time, using digital platforms to manage evaluation and voting processes.

Impact On the Restaurant Industry

Claudia Ramírez, Executive President, National Chamber of the Restaurant and Seasoned Food Industry (CANIRAC), said the organization expects the sector to close 2026 with annual growth of 5%, largely driven by World Cup-related demand. This would mark a sharp improvement from the 1.8% growth recorded in 2025, which fell short of the initial 5% target amid global economic pressures and regional security challenges.

Hugo Vela Reyna, President, Mexican Restaurant Association (AMR), estimated that restaurant sales in host cities, Mexico City, Guadalajara, and Monterrey, could rise by as much as 15% on match days. He said the expanded tournament format and the 13 matches scheduled in Mexico represent a critical opportunity to revitalize an industry that has faced seven years of disruption, including the pandemic, inflation, and rising labor costs.

Despite these prospects, the sector continues to operate under significant pressure. Ignacio Alarcón, president of CANIRAC, said 2025 was particularly challenging due to the global economic slowdown and regional security issues that dampened tourism and dining activity. He added that while raw material costs have increased by more than 30%, restaurants have raised menu prices by only about 8% to avoid losing customers, forcing businesses to absorb much of the cost increase in order to preserve foot traffic.