Mexico Defies Tariffs, AI Pushed Growth: The Year in Retail

The Mexican e-commerce and retail sectors underwent a structural transformation in 2025, shaped by aggressive protectionist trade policies, accelerated adoption of artificial intelligence, and the continued professionalization of small and medium-sized enterprises. Despite macroeconomic volatility and new fiscal pressures, Mexico consolidated its position as one of the fastest-growing digital markets globally. 

In 2025, global e-commerce is expected to reach US$6 trillion in value, making it the world’s third-largest economy if treated as a country. With nearly 3 billion people shopping online, digital commerce now reaches 50% of the global population and 75% of internet users, according to data from the Mexican Online Sales Association (AMVO). Mexico remains among the fastest-growing markets, with e-commerce accounting for 15.8% of total retail sales. The country has ranked among the top five globally for digital commerce growth for eight consecutive years.

The year was marked by significant shifts in trade regulations aimed at leveling the competitive landscape for domestic producers. Effective Aug. 15, 2025, the Mexican government implemented a 33.5% tariff on imports from Asian e-commerce platforms, targeting ultra-fast fashion and low-cost retailers such as Shein and Temu. This followed a Jan. 1, 2025, measure by the Tax Administration Service (SAT) imposing a 19% duty on goods entering Mexico via courier from countries without free trade agreements. 

The SAT also intensified its crackdown on tax evasion, seizing approximately 1.4 million products valued at MX$1.6 billion by early 2025.  In parallel, new regulations required foreign e-commerce platforms to pay the 16% value-added tax on all sales conducted within Mexican territory. Ahead of the 2026 USMCA review, Mexico increased tariffs on more than 1,000 products—up to 35%—from countries without trade agreements, aligning more closely with North American trade partners.

The move followed pressure from the United States urging Mexico to limit commercial ties with China, despite warnings from domestic business groups that higher tariffs could drive up production costs. In response, China criticized the measures as unilateral and protectionist. “China has always opposed all forms of unilateral tariff increases and hopes Mexico will correct such unilateralist and protectionist practices as soon as possible,” China’s commerce ministry said.

“New tariffs imposed on products imported from non-USMCA countries could trigger consumer price increases of 40% to 80% in certain goods (from appliances to textiles, furniture, toys, cosmetics, and automobiles) within a six- to 12-month period,” Patrick Lassauzet, Head of PR & Corporate Communications, SHEIN Mexico, wrote on MBN. “These are not limited to 'luxury goods'; many are everyday items that make up the consumption basket of millions of families.”

“The result is not just a higher bill, but a consumption experience that is narrower and less connected to the world,” he added. 

Artificial Intelligence and Data Integration

In 2025, retailers moved beyond pilot programs, embedding artificial intelligence into core operational infrastructure to address rising costs and security challenges. AWS industry data shows that nearly 40% of Mexican companies adopted AI by December. While 72% initially used these tools for basic tasks such as translation and light automation, 88% of adopters reported productivity gains and revenue growth of at least 16%.

“In 2025, the cost of ignoring data on time was higher than ever,” said Francisco Álvarez, CCO and Co-Founder, Getin. “We saw stores with more foot traffic but fewer entries, teams working the wrong shifts, layouts optimized for internal convenience rather than customer flow, and campaigns launched without  verifying whether expected traffic would materialize. This was not a lack of effort; it was a lack of alignment between operations and reality.”

For Marcos Pueyrredon, President, eCommerce Institute and Co-founder, VTEX, AI acts as an enhancer to create better, more human retail experiences. 

Zara, Inditex’s flagship brand, deployed generative AI to produce hyper-realistic images of human models, reducing costs,  and launched a virtual fitting room to lower cart abandonment and returns. Retailers such as Walmart and El Palacio de Hierro also implemented AI to reduce shrinkage through integrated video surveillance. The luxury retailer incorporated predictive analytics into its existing CCTV systems to identify high-risk patterns associated with organized retail crime, such as shelf sweeping or loitering in high-value departments like fine jewelry and electronics.

Conversational and Social Commerce

Mexico has one of the highest rates of smartphone usage globally, averaging eight hours per day- a trend companies leveraged to expand social and conversational commerce.  AI-powered chatbots now automate up to 70% of customer inquiries for small businesses, primarily through platforms such as WhatsApp, helping them manage the demands of an increasingly digital consumer base.

Companies like Blip use WhatsApp to foster more immediate and personal customer engagement. “Conversational platforms create a new paradigm: messages must be timely, relevant, and expected. Users must opt in and be willing to engage in a two-way conversation. The entire interaction should feel natural, not like spam,” said Thiago Goncalves, country manager, Blip, in comments to MBN. 

Generative AI is also reshaping product development and customer engagement by allowing companies to design experiences using natural language rather than rigid code, according to José Araguainamo, co-founder and CRO, Yalutec. While text-based interfaces make interactions more intuitive, they also introduce risks of disintermediation as AI agents increasingly communicate and transact autonomously.

Mainstream assistants such as ChatGPT and Google began allowing users to delegate research, selection, and purchasing decisions to AI agents. Statista data shows that around 25% of shoppers aged 18 to 39 prefer  AI-assisted product searches, while 40% have followed recommendations from AI-generated influencers. Global players like Walmart—through a partnership with OpenAI—and Alibaba launched AI-first shopping modes, prompting Mexican merchants to adopt Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) to ensure product visibility as large language models become primary intermediaries.

Despite these opportunities, AI-driven commerce also poses risks, including reduced visibility into customer behavior and potential erosion of brand loyalty. Retailers increasingly prioritized identity verification and consent protocols to validate agent intent at checkout. Payment providers introduced new safeguards, such as Visa’s Trusted Agent Protocol (TAP), following a 4,700% surge in AI-driven retail traffic.

Record CEO Turnover 

The sector also experienced heightened executive turnover as companies navigated labor reforms, tariff pressures, generational transitions, and strategic realignments. In the United States, retail CEO exits rose by more than 100% year over year. In Mexico, at least nine major companies—including Walmex, FEMSA, and Grupo Bimbo—changed top leadership in 2H25.

At FEMSA, José Antonio Fernández Garza-Lagüera was appointed as part of a long-planned succession process. At La Comer, Héctor de la Barreda assumed the CEO role, while his predecessor, Santiago García, joined the Board of Directors. These leadership changes coincided with slowing economic momentum. Data from the National Association of Self-Service and Department Stores (ANTAD) showed accumulated sales growth of 3.3% between January and September 2025, down from 4.6% in the same period of 2024.

Despite broader uncertainty, Mexico’s year-end discount campaign, El Buen Fin, delivered record results. Total sales reached MX$219 billion, a 26.6% increase year over year. Digital channels drove much of this growth, with online sales totaling MX$45.9 billion—up 31%—and accounting for a record 21% of total campaign sales.

Nearly 216,000 businesses participated in the five-day event, a 13% increase from the previous year. According to AMVO, companies attributed their performance to aggressive promotions, wide product assortments, sufficient inventory, and coordinated omnichannel strategies.

Looking ahead, Tinjacá said 2026 will be defined by technological flexibility as the foundation of retail success, with companies that prioritize continuous adaptation expected to maintain a competitive edge.