USMCA Revision to Prove US-Mexico Synergies: Experts

The relationship between Mexico and the United States has entered a new, complex reality defined by a shifting global trade landscape, creating both significant opportunities and serious internal challenges for Mexico, experts highlight.

During the AMSOC Fourth Binational Convention, Guillermo Malpica, Executive Director, Alianza in Mexico, noted that with a trade relationship valued at US$1.8 million per minute, the two countries are deeply interconnected. However, he noted this new era requires Mexico to proactively navigate institutional challenges and build upon the current conditions to ensure positive growth.

Mariana Campos, Director General, Mexico Evalúa, assured the United States is in a delicate position in terms of demographics, which offers a key opportunity for Mexico. She noted that since the pandemic, the United States has had a deficit of 300,000 to 800,000 job openings that cannot be filled, a figure projected to grow to 1 million by 2033, positioning Mexico as a crucial labor partner."There is a new reality: the world is no longer unipolar. We have more global powers, and the United States is under a great deal of pressure to compete with China. To do this, the US has to consolidate its leadership through alliances, and Mexico is an important player,” she added.

Campos said that in a multipolar world, Mexico's status as the top US trade partner gives it a significant strategic advantage, especially with the 2026 USMCA revision approaching. She identified the pharmaceutical sector as a key opportunity, where Mexico could attract manufacturing investment to supply North America. However, this would require a two-pronged strategy. "For a time, Mexico may have to import these raw materials, but we must invest in human development to build that capacity in our own country. Therefore, Mexico has to negotiate to ensure it is not penalized with tariffs for these critical manufacturing imports,” Campos noted.

Despite these opportunities, Campos noted that Mexico faces significant internal barriers. Low national productivity, a lack of purchasing power, and security issues hinder trade and investment. The high cost and scarcity of key resources like electricity and water were also cited as significant obstacles. 

Verónica Ortiz, Former CEO, Mexican Council on Foreign Affairs (COMEXI), noted that despite the NAFTA, now USMCA, being a trade success for more than 30 years, the main criticism surrounding it is that it has not solved inequality in Mexico when compared to the United States. However, she said that FTAs must be viewed as a leverage for progress, as it is the government’s responsibility to translate investments into social benefits, especially through the creation of formal, well-paid jobs. She noted the USMCA’s strong emphasis on labor rights, such as the requirement for a percentage of auto manufacturing to be done by workers earning at least US$16 per hour, is designed to generate better-paid employment. 

To fully leverage the benefits of USMCA, experts concluded that Mexico must address its internal governance and security issues to become a more reliable partner. This includes proactively building a multidisciplinary team for negotiations with the United States, as well as incorporating modern topics such as AI and microchips into the upcoming treaty review. 

"The truth is that a trade treaty is not a magic wand; you need to provide the right conditions, such as a structure for public security and legal certainty. Everything that President Donald Trump called non-tariff barriers falls into this category. This is the domestic work each country must do to attract investment and become a reliable partner," Ortiz concluded.

Estefanía Cruz, Researcher, UNAM’s Research Center on North America, notes Mexico could also leverage the migrant population in the United States, which he notes, over 70% of them are in a regular migratory status. He said Mexico could do what China did with Shenzhen, when the central government invited those Chinese abroad to go to the city and help develop the now global industrial hub. "We need investors in Mexico, and we can add Mexican migrants to this effort. I believe this is a very important moment to incorporate them, for example, by organizing business or investment opportunity trips for individuals or collective investment. This is a very big opportunity for the country,” she stressed.