Global Air Passenger Demand Rises 4% in July, IATA Says

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported a 4.0% year-over-year increase in global air passenger demand for July 2025, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK). This growth was supported by a 4.4% increase in capacity, measured in available seat kilometers (ASK). The global load factor for July was 85.5%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points from the same month last year.

International traffic outpaced domestic demand, rising 5.3% year-on-year. Capacity on international routes increased 5.8%, with a load factor of 85.6%, also down 0.4 percentage points. Domestic demand rose 1.9%, while capacity increased 2.4%, and the domestic load factor declined to 85.2%. 

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General, said,  “It has been a strong northern summer season for airlines. Momentum has grown over the peak season, with July demand reaching 4% growth… airlines are well-positioned to capitalize on this market momentum in the coming months.”

Latin American carriers led regional growth, with a 9.3% year-over-year increase in passenger demand and an 11.3% capacity rise. Load factor for the region was 85.8%, down 1.6 percentage points, supported by strong intra-regional traffic. In the domestic market, Brazil recorded the highest RPK growth at 9.4%, with a load factor of 85.8%. Japan posted a record July load factor of 81.4%, despite a reduction in capacity.

Globally, IATA has revised down its full-year traffic and profit forecasts for 2025. In June, the association cited headwinds from economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and cost pressures. Global passenger journeys are now expected to fall below 5 billion this year, down from an earlier forecast of 5.22 billion. Cumulative airline profits are projected at US$36 billion—US$600 million less than previously expected. Revenues are now forecast at US$979 billion, below the earlier US$1 trillion projection.

Walsh told IATA’s annual general meeting in June: “Considering the headwinds, it's a strong result that demonstrates the resilience airlines have worked hard to fortify.” He also warned that additional taxes, regulatory costs, or tariffs could rapidly weaken that resilience. “Policymakers who rely on airlines as the core of a value chain employing 86.5 million people and supporting 3.9% of global economic activity must keep this clearly in focus.”

Jet fuel costs, however, have provided some relief. The average price per barrel in 2025 is forecast at US$86—down from US$99 in 2024. This decline will reduce the total airline fuel bill by US$25 billion year-over-year, totaling US$236 billion and accounting for 25.8% of all operating costs. Nonetheless, IATA flagged continued risks from geopolitical conflicts, trade disputes, and uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, which could constrain cargo and business travel.