US Challenges to Delta–Aeroméxico Raise Cross-Border Flight Risks

Political developments in the United States have renewed scrutiny of the regulatory framework governing air operations between the United States and Mexico. The US administration revoked 13 routes and raised the possibility of dissolving the Delta–Aeroméxico alliance, underscoring the limits of the bilateral aviation agreement in place since 1960. The move highlighted the absence of binding dispute-resolution mechanisms and the vulnerability of air connectivity, which underpins both passenger travel and logistics for cross-border industries.

Mexico depends on the United States for roughly 70% of its international air traffic, making the sector critical to trade and supply-chain continuity. Any disruption to routes or operating authorizations directly affects industries reliant on rapid transport, broadening operational risks.

The upcoming USMCA review has prompted experts to argue that aviation should be added to the negotiation agenda. Eliseo Llamazares, aviation and tourism lead partner, KPMG México, said aviation issues should be part of commercial discussions. “Topics related to passenger air transport should be included in bilateral or trilateral trade negotiations,” he said. “It is an appropriate environment to conduct this type of negotiation.”

Llamazares noted that North America lacks precedents for integrating aviation into trade agreements, unlike Europe, where the European Union created a unified framework covering operations, competition, and sustainability. He said this model has enabled coordinated decarbonization goals and consistent operational criteria. “I would include it as one of the negotiation areas,” he said.

Industry leaders say a dispute-resolution system similar to those used in other USMCA sectors could provide stability. Ángel Domínguez Catzín, president of the Mexican Pilots Association, said the current bilateral agreement contains mechanisms that have never been used. “These mechanisms exist,” he said. “If governments cannot reach an agreement, they should use the tools the agreement provides.”

Julio Zugasti, aviation expert at Hogan Lovells, said the bilateral framework has historically benefited passengers through expanded routes and competitive fares, but recent tensions show compliance issues on both sides. “It is important to analyze whether commitments have been respected by both nations,” he said.

Although a US appeals court suspended the order to dissolve the Delta–Aeroméxico alliance, uncertainty persists. Jesús Ortiz Álvarez, secretary general of ASPA, said the union prepared for a scenario in which the alliance ended. “We are preparing under the assumption that the alliance could disappear, hoping it does not,” he said. He added that the union expects stronger negotiations with the US and a national aviation policy. “We need a state aviation policy,” he said. “In Mexico, we do not have one.”