Coffee Prices Surge Amid Global Supply Strains

Coffee prices saw a sharp rise in April 2025, driven by global supply shortages, rising production and shipping costs, and climate impacts affecting major producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam.

In April 2025, the price of roasted coffee rose by 19.2%, while instant coffee increased by 13.4%, marking the steepest monthly surge in recent years, reported INEGI. This marks the highest monthly increase in coffee prices in the past two years. Price hikes were less steep in the country’s three major cities, with increases of 6.2% in Monterrey, 7.7% in Mexico City and its metropolitan area, and 8.8% in Guadalajara, according to the institute.

Juan Carlos Anaya, Director, Agricultural Markets Consulting Group (GCMA), explained that production costs have risen significantly. In just 18 months, the price of a quintal of coffee jumped from US$146 to US$393, an increase that has directly impacted final consumer prices. This price surge has raised concerns across several economic sectors. Experts point to the global drop in production as the main driver of the increase, which has reduced supply and pushed prices upward.

In recent years, coffee plantations in Brazil and Vietnam, together responsible for about 50% of the world's coffee production, have been hit by droughts attributed to climate change. In Vietnam, prolonged dry weather led to a 20% decline in coffee production between 2023 and 2024, while exports dropped by 10% for the second consecutive year. Additionally, the production cost of the crop rose by 5.8% in 2024.

In April 2025, Brazil exported 3.09 million 60kg bags of coffee, a 27.7% year-on-year reduction. Nevertheless, Brazil’s Coffee Exporters Council (CECAFÉ) noted that despite the drop in volume shipped, the value of sales rose by 41.8% compared to April last year, reaching US$1.3 million. "In the first four months of 2025, Brazilian coffee exports were 15.5% lower than in the same period the previous year. Yet, revenue increased by 51%, totaling US$5.2 million," the council highlighted.

Another factor contributing to the rise in global coffee prices has been the increase in shipping costs. In December 2024, consumers in the United States paid 6.6% more for their coffee, and those in the European Union paid 3.75% more, compared to the same period in 2023. Both regions were the largest coffee importers in 2023.

At the national level, Mexico’s coffee production is also expected to decline by 8% this year. Chiapas remains the leading coffee-producing state, accounting for 41% of total volume, followed by Veracruz with 24%, and Puebla with 15%, according to figures from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (SADER). Nonetheless, despite these challenges, coffee consumption in Mexico has remained steady, noted Anaya.

In Mexico, six out of every 10 households consume coffee daily, according to the Usage and Out of Home panel conducted by Kantar. Regarding consumption habits, 50% of people prefer to drink coffee at home during breakfast to boost their energy, 20% drink it throughout the day, and 30% consume it at dinner.

The study also highlights that, as more activities take place outside the home, coffee consumption in restaurants and cafés has increased as well, despite higher prices. The average coffee consumer profile is from a middle socioeconomic level, predominantly women, and people aged 50 or older.