Mass Deportations Threaten US Agriculture

Mass deportations proposed by president-elect Donald Trump could severely disrupt the US agriculture industry, which relies heavily on immigrant labor. Experts warn that these deportations could lead to labor shortages, and higher food prices, putting significant strain on the economy.

Among Donald Trump’s campaign promises is a plan for mass deportations targeting millions of undocumented migrants, many of whom are of Mexican origin. According to Pew Research Center, Mexico is the leading country of origin for migrants, with 10.6 million individuals, followed by India with 2.8 million and China with 2.5 million. Key sectors such as agriculture, construction, cleaning services, and hospitality rely heavily on the labor of these workers. Analysts warn that their removal could deliver a severe blow to the US economy.

Particularly in the agriculture sector, 70% of farmworkers are immigrants, and 50% of them are undocumented, according to data from the US Department of Labor. Deportations could severely disrupt harvests in states like California, which produces a third of the nation's vegetables and three-quarters of its fruits. This disruption would compromise the availability of daily food products for consumers in the United States.

Edward Orozco, Director of the Community and Labor Center, University of California, emphasized that any plan for mass deportations would be devastating for both the agricultural industry and consumers. "Any disruption in the industry would drive up prices at a time when workers are already concerned about inflation," he stated.

The expert highlighted that an increase in production costs coupled with a decrease in output, caused by a reduced number of workers in the fields, would result in higher prices for both transporters and consumers. Furthermore, deportations would also significantly affect labor supply in the meatpacking and food processing industries, as well as agricultural exports. 

In late November, Trump also announced his intention to impose a 25% tariff on all goods entering the United States from Canada and Mexico, as reported by MBN. This measure, he claimed, aims to curb the flow of illegal drugs and migrants across the border. Such a move places significant pressure on agricultural trade between the countries, as Mexico and Canada are the United States' top agricultural suppliers.

Orozco noted that despite the potential negative implications, many agricultural business owners in California support Trump's policies. Although this may seem contradictory, given that anti-immigrant measures could harm their profitability, the threat of deportation also gives employers significant power over their workers, he explained.

This situation has alarmed many labor rights advocates for immigrant agricultural workers. "The fear of deportation is much more likely to be weaponized to suppress unionization efforts and demands for better working conditions," Orozco said. This would further exacerbate the already precarious working conditions in agricultural fields, where workers lack the union protections, child labor safeguards, minimum wage standards, or overtime benefits enjoyed in other industries.

According to a study by the Center for American Progress, the deportation of approximately 11 million undocumented immigrants residing in the United States could reduce the country's GDP by US$1.6 billion over 10 years. This stands in contrast to the fiscal contributions of undocumented immigrants, who actively participate in the economy. Immigrant households contributed nearly one-sixth of all US taxes in 2022, according to an analysis by the American Immigration Council.

Tarek Hassan, Economics Professor, Boston University, pointed out that migrants are also more likely to be of working age compared to the US born population. Like other developed countries, the United States faces the challenges of an aging population. In this context, the Bureau of Labor Statistics notes that while migrants represent about 14% of the US population, they account for nearly 19% of the national workforce—around 31 million workers—and have higher labor force participation rates than native-born citizens.

Mexican authorities are already working on an inter-agency plan to address the potential consequences of mass deportations. In early December, officials from various government departments held a strategic meeting to outline specific actions. This joint effort aims to tackle the challenges of receiving returning migrants, from logistical arrangements to their social and economic reintegration.

President Claudia Sheinbaum also announced that her government is creating a program to hire more attorneys to assist migrants in Mexico’s consulates in the United States “We are preparing to welcome Mexicans who are deported from the United States for any reason. It is our duty,” the president said during one of her morning press conferences.