Mexican Avocado Producers Optimistic Despite Tariff Concerns

The avocado industry in Mexico is currently experiencing one of its peak seasons, fueled by the excitement surrounding the Super Bowl. However, it faces potential disruption due to the threat of tariffs from the US government. Despite this, Mexican producers remain hopeful that exports will continue to flow smoothly.

Armando López, Executive Director, Association of Producers and Export Packers of Avocados From Mexico (APEAM), expressed confidence in the future of exports. "We do not want to speculate, as this is a very delicate issue between authorities. We expect to be on the right track, so when the issue is revisited, it will be for the future vision of the industry."

This statement comes as Karoline Leavitt, US Press Secretary reaffirmed that tariffs promised by former President Donald Trump could take effect on Feb. 1. Despite this, López remains cautiously optimistic, stressing the importance of a favorable resolution for the avocado industry, which is a major source of employment in Mexico.

The Mexican avocado season is valued at US$3 billion, while the US avocado trade contributes US$4.2 billion to the economy. During the weeks leading up to the Super Bowl, exports to the United States typically rise, with the APEAM reporting that approximately 110,000t of avocados have already been shipped in the first four weeks of 2025. Demand is largely driven by the popularity of guacamole during major events like the Super Bowl, which will take place on Feb. 9 in New Orleans.

The avocado export industry provides direct employment for 78,000 people and indirect jobs for 300,000, underlining the significance of maintaining stable trade relations. According to APEAM, the United States is Mexico's primary consumer, with a per capita consumption of 4.1kg, especially during key events like the Super Bowl and Cinco de Mayo.

In response to potential tariffs, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum expressed confidence that the tariffs would not materialize, though she confirmed the existence of a contingency plan should the situation change.