Mexico Ranks Among Top OECD Countries for Food Inflation

Mexico recorded one of the 10 highest food inflation rates among OECD countries in May, driven by climate-related supply shocks and global market disruptions that pushed up the prices of fruits, vegetables, and meat.

In May, food prices in Mexico surged by 5.1%, surpassing the OECD average of 4.6%. According to the organization's monthly data collected from its 38 member countries, food prices in Mexico rose significantly compared to April, when the annual variation was 3.6%. The countries with the highest food inflation were Turkey with 32.9%, Japan with 6.9%, and Iceland with 5.9%, reported the organization. 

In its Economic Outlook, the OECD’s semiannual report on forecasts for its 28 partner countries, the organization warned that due to Mexico’s high exposure to the US market, projections for growth and inflation remain uncertain.

Alberto Ramos, Chief Economist for Latin America, Goldman Sachs, noted that fruit and vegetable prices have become a key source of inflationary pressure and are contributing to price rigidity in the services sector. So far in 2025, limes have seen the highest price increase, with a year-on-year inflation rate of 38.9% through May, followed by bananas with a 30.84% rise, according to data from INEGI. Other fruits showing notable increases include guava with 20.7%, avocado with 28.6%, and oranges with 23.3%.

Janneth Quiroz, Director of Analysis, Grupo Financiero Monex, explained that these price hikes stem from supply shocks driven by climate-related factors such as high temperatures, intense rainfall, and winter frosts.

Livestock products have also risen in price, recording a 7.5% increase in 2025. Diego Díaz, Economic Development Coordinator, Mexican Institute for Competitiveness (IMCO), highlighted the sharp increases in chicken and beef prices, which have climbed 12% and 16.6% year-on-year, respectively. Pamela Díaz, Mexico Economist, BNP Paribas, pointed out that chicken prices have been affected by the outbreak of avian flu in the United States and Brazil, as well as by import restrictions introduced as a containment measure.

In response to this situation, President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration, in coordination with the private sector, has proposed adding beef, chicken, and pork to the Anti-Inflation and Scarcity Package (PACIC), a program designed to stabilize prices for essential food products in Mexico. Francisco Cervantes, President, Business Coordinating Council (CCE), said talks are underway with producers to bring them into the PACIC. “It is not an easy task; some sectors have little room to maneuver, and we are evaluating how much of an effort can be made,” he said.

Arturo Vieyra, Chief Economist, Coppel, emphasized that food inflation disproportionately affects lower-income households, who must allocate a larger share of their income to purchasing basic necessities such as food. Gabriela Siller, Director of Economic Analysis, Grupo Financiero BASE, agreed that high inflation erodes Mexicans’ purchasing power. “When inflation accelerates, people begin to expect even higher prices, adjust their consumption patterns, and this can lead to an inflationary spiral,” she warned.