Trade Uncertainty Slows Growth of Pet Food Exports

Mexico’s pet food market remains in a holding pattern amid uncertainty over US trade policies, limiting export growth. 

The market was expected to hit US$3.59 billion in 2024, an increase of nearly 2% over 2023, when it closed at US$3.52 billion, reports the National Council of Balanced Feed and Animal Nutrition Manufacturers (CONAFAB). In volume, the market was projected to grow to 1,384 t that year.

This steady growth makes Mexico attractive for both domestic and foreign investment, says Ernesto Ávila, President of Grupo Amascota, CONAFAB. He adds that between 2024 and 2025, three companies alone invested US$4.2 billion in new production plants in Queretaro and Morelos, which produce wet pet food for national and international markets. Other companies are also planning to invest similar amounts to meet local demand, he adds.

Over the past five years, Mexico’s pet food market has grown at double-digit rates. Despite recent challenges, CONAFAB expects the trend to continue, citing a strong domestic market. Growth is being driven by innovative new products, while total volume is sustained by more traditional and established categories such as snacks and functional supplements, says Ávila.

However, Ávila says that the industry’s future is uncertain due to tariff policies enacted by US President Donald Trump. “In 2025, we expect single-digit growth because exports are still in question. We are not producing more because we do not know how the trade conditions might change in the coming months,” he adds.

Ávila points out that the 20% of pet-owning households in the southern US represent a significant market that could be supplied from Mexico. As of 2024, Mexico’s exports of dog and cat food totaled 93,905t, worth about US$153 million. In addition, exports of balanced animal feed grew by 29.6% in value and 21.3% in volume last year. “This year will serve as a testing ground for understanding how export-related business decisions evolve,” he says.

During the review of the USMCA, expected in September this year, the sector aims to push for greater recognition of the pet food industry, says Ávila. The industry continues to rely on US grain imports for production, leaving a trade deficit on that front. “We are already working with the National Agricultural Council (CNA) to actively engage in shaping the new agreement,” he adds.

In 2024, the average monthly household expenditure on pet food was about MX$400. In the middle-income bracket, the amount is around MX$800, while in the highest income bracket, it reaches about MX$1,100.