US Restrictions on Cattle Exports Could Extend Beyond 2026

According to agricultural specialists and industry leaders, restrictions imposed by the United States on Mexican cattle exports could remain in place beyond 2026, directly affecting domestic producers.

Juan Antonio Hinojosa, Vice President of Risk Management, Stonex Financial Inc., said the US government does not expect to import live cattle from Mexico in 2026, as it seeks to prevent the spread of screwworm. “A report from the Department of Agriculture shows there will be zero live cattle exports to the United States,” he said at the 2025 Agri-Food Forum organized by the National Agricultural Council (CNA).

The USDA’s Livestock and Products Annual Report for Mexico, published in August, reported 240,000 export units for 2025, down from 1.25 million the previous year. However, what is most concerning, Hinojosa added, is that while the agency projects national production at 8.7 million head of cattle in 2026, it expects no exports. “This scenario could change if an agreement is reached between the two governments,” he said.

Hinojosa noted that while Mexican production will remain active, the lack of access to the US market, the country’s main buyer of live cattle, poses a critical challenge. In 2025 alone, about US$1.3 million in exports, or roughly 650,000 head of cattle, have not been realized due to the border closure following the screwworm outbreak, said Luis Fernando Haro, Director General, CNA.

Haro qualified the closure as unfair to Mexico’s cattle-exporting states, as the screwworm outbreak is more than 1,400km from the US border and has not been detected in the northern region. In this regard, producers argue that a viable solution would be for the United States to respect regionalization agreements, which would restrict exports only from outbreak areas in southeastern Mexico and not from northern states, the main exporters. Without this recognition, the sector warns, economic losses could continue, and a surplus of unsold cattle could build up.

While awaiting US authorities’ decision on reopening the border, part of the cattle supply has been sold on the domestic market, though at prices below those available in the US market. Haro noted that cattle exported north are fattening breeds, different from those typically sold in Mexico. He added that US feedlot operators are also affected, as the lack of Mexican cattle has contributed to higher beef prices for US consumers.

During the forum, Berdegué urged US authorities to reopen the border to Mexican cattle exports, arguing that there is no technical or scientific reason to keep it closed. He added that dialogue with Brooke Rollins, US Agriculture Secretary, is progressing very well.

Berdegué said USDA experts are currently in Chihuahua and other northern states inspecting livestock facilities alongside Mexican technicians to ensure that each head of cattle entering Texas is healthy and free of screwworm. “Based on these results and the level of dialogue, I want to state that it is time to normalize cattle trade. We hope this review provides new evidence to help move forward with the necessary measures,” he said.