Tesla 4Q24: Vehicle Deliveries, Growth Despite Challenges

Tesla delivered 495,570 vehicles in 4Q24, a 2% increase compared to 484,507 vehicles delivered in 4Q23. However, the company fell short of Wall Street's expectations, which had forecasted around 507,000 deliveries for the period.

For the full year of 2024, Tesla's total vehicle deliveries reached 1.79 million, missing its target of 1.8 million by approximately 19,000 units. Despite this miss, the company saw growth compared to the 1.84 million vehicles delivered in 2023.

Most Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries came from its Model 3 and Model Y vehicles, with 471,930 of these units delivered. The remaining 23,640 vehicles were from other models, including the Model S, Model X, and Cybertruck, which was released in late 2023.

In terms of production, Tesla manufactured a total of 1.77 million electric vehicles in 2024, down slightly from 1.84 million in 2023. In 4Q24, Tesla produced 436,718 units of the Model 3 and Model Y, along with 22,727 units of its other models.

Tesla’s stock saw a decline of 6%, dropping to US$379 per share, marking its first time below the US$400 mark since December 2023.

Despite the sales miss, analysts maintained a generally positive outlook for the company. Gene Munster, Managing Partner, Deepwater Asset Management, stated that the slight miss would not impact Tesla’s long-term prospects. Dan Ives, Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst, Wedbush Securities, described the deliveries as “respectable” and projected 20-30% growth for Tesla in 2025.

Several of Tesla’s competitors reported their own quarterly sales figures. Xpeng delivered 91,507 EVs in 4Q24, reflecting a 52% year-on-year increase. Nio set a record by delivering 72,689 EVs in 4Q24, marking a 45% year-on-year growth. BYD, Tesla’s largest competitor, sold 1.76 million battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) in 2024, falling short of Tesla’s total but still reporting growth compared to the previous year.

Looking ahead, there is potential for regulatory changes that could affect Tesla and the broader EV market. President-elect Donald Trump is considering rolling back car-crash reporting rules and streamlining regulations for autonomous vehicles, which could benefit Tesla. Additionally, there are discussions around potential changes to the federal tax credit for EVs. 

While CEO Elon Musk has expressed mixed views on tax credits, some experts believe that removing these credits could significantly reduce overall EV sales. According to estimates, the elimination of tax credits could lead to a 27% drop in annual EV sales, equating to 317,000 fewer vehicles being registered each year.