AI Market to Consolidate in 18 Months: ServiceNow

The global AI market is seeing an unprecedented investment phase and will undergo a decisive consolidation over the next 18 months, says ServiceNow. This period will define the strategic players that will lead the industry, separating sustainable value propositions from the current market fragmentation.

The urgency of investments does not respond to “collective anxiety” but to a strategic window of opportunity with a clear deadline, says Enrique Upton, President and General Manager NOLA, ServiceNow. "The market is going to be defined in the next 18 months. Today, it is extremely fragmented. There are many players raising their hands and attempting to have the market perceive them as that strategic partner to navigate the world of AI, but few will survive," Upton says.

Capital flowing into AI is divided into two main categories. The first is investment in fundamental infrastructure, a necessary condition to capitalize on the technology's potential. This includes modernizing data centers, optimizing energy sources and developing low-latency connectivity. A tangible example is the construction of fiber optic infrastructure between Phoenix and Queretaro to interconnect the data centers of hyperscalers like Google, AWS, and Microsoft.

The second category corresponds to the investments that technology companies are making to position themselves strategically. For example, in early September 2025, Big Tech met with US President Donald Trump and announced multiple medium-term investments to continue strengthening the industry, the most notable being those of Meta and Apple, both planning to inject at least US$600 billion over the next few years. 

Citing research from International Data Corporation (IDC), Upton notes that the AI economy could reach a value of US$4 trillion by 2029. This figure, “justifies the current billion-dollar investments, as it anticipates a trillion-dollar return at a speed unprecedented in technological history, ” says Upton. For organizations with a clear strategy, immediate execution is an imperative to secure a relevant place in the future consolidated ecosystem.

The 18-Month Metric and the Maturity Indicator

The 18-month projection for market consolidation is based on the revenue generation rate of pioneering AI companies. Companies like OpenAI and Anthropic surpassed the US$1 billion revenue mark at a drastically accelerated pace compared to previous software "unicorns," which often required up to a decade to reach similar milestones. This exponential growth is the primary indicator supporting the forecast of a rapid market definition.

The tipping point that will mark the transition from hype to an established industry will be the success rate of AI pilot projects. The failure rate is estimated at about 95%. According to Upton, consolidation will materialize when this indicator reverses and over 50% of pilot implementations are successful. "When we manage to surpass the barrier where more than 50% are successful, I would think that is the moment to say, ‘Okay, this is now being digested.’ At least one out of two gets it right," says Upton. To accelerate this transition, ServiceNow and other market players are developing "pre-designed agents." 

A primary cause of pilot failure is the incorrect identification of the data sources required for an AI model to function. By pre-designing agents with data requirements already defined for specific use cases, the friction in implementation is reduced and the probability of success is raised, says Upton. This allows companies to experience tangible benefits and move toward more customized developments. ServiceNow aims to act as a "control tower" that orchestrates these different agents and workflows, capitalizing on its expertise in process automation.

Strategic Imperatives for Mexico

Upton says that facing the consolidation of a market led by economies like the United States and China, Mexico must focus on three strategic areas to position itself advantageously. First, the transition to clean energy is fundamental to support the demand from data centers, which are the operational foundation of AI.

Second, there is a critical shortage of data scientists. It is imperative to promote the training of engineers who not only master data analysis but also understand its application in key industrial sectors, such as automotive. This will boost the talent nearshoring phenomenon, where bilingual professionals in Mexico can collaborate with North American companies.

Finally, to catalyze the internal economy, democratizing access to credit is crucial. Modernizing the financial system would allow SMEs, which constitute 99.8% of the country's business landscape, to access capital to innovate and adopt new technologies, thereby driving national economic development.