Mexicans Face a 21% Surge in Día de Reyes Holiday Costs

While the Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services, and Tourism (CONCANACO SERVYTUR) projects Mexico’s Día de Reyes (Epiphany Day) holiday on Jan. 6 will generate MX$26.13 billion (US$1.6 billion), Mexicans face a sharp rise in the cost of holiday staples, with the price of traditional Rosca de Reyes bread and hot chocolate increasing 21% annually.

A study by the Alliance of Small Merchants (ANPEC) indicates that the average household expenditure for the traditional meal, serving up to 15 people, will rise to MX$901, up from MX$745 in 2025. Cuauhtémoc Rivera, Pesident, ANPEC, noted that “the celebration has a particularly deep cultural footprint in the center and south of the country, where it forms an essential part of family and community life; however, its celebration extends throughout the national territory.”

The cost of a traditional Rosca de Reyes varies significantly by point of sale. Small roscas range from MX$290 in neighborhood bakeries to MX$420 in franchise establishments, while large versions range from MX$560 to MX$650. Gourmet versions can reach prices up to MX$950. Complementary items, such as milk and chocolate, add an estimated MX$341 to the household budget. Gift-giving remains the largest financial pressure for families, as ANPEC estimates that the average expenditure on toys for two children will be MX$1,350, an 18% increase from last year’s MX$1,145.

Tariffs on imported goods have significantly impacted the sector. Rivera stated that the price of Chinese-made toys has increased by up to 50% in some cases. “This scenario generates an inflationary effect, as the rise in the price of Chinese toys also pushes up the price of national toys. The blow arrives at the worst moment, right in the Día de Reyes season,” Rivera said.

Price increases occur alongside a broader deceleration in annual inflation, which slowed to 3.72% in the first half of December. According to INEGI, core inflation eased to 4.34%. While fruit and vegetable prices fell by 5.66%, livestock product prices rose 6.36%. In response to these trends, Banxico lowered the benchmark interest rate to 7.0%. However, sub-governor Jonathan Heath dissented, favoring a 7.25% rate due to concerns that the 3.0% inflation target for late 2026 may be unrealistic.

The Institute of International Finance (IIF) has issued a cautious forecast for 2026, projecting GDP growth at 0.9%, contrasting with the federal government's 2.3% budget projection.

Market Drivers and Consumer Behavior

The 13% increase in the national minimum wage, effective Jan. 1, is cited as a primary factor allowing families to maintain holiday traditions. The holiday will stimulate activity across 2.68 million commercial establishments nationwide.

In Mexico City, the Chamber of Commerce (CANACO CDMX) projected an economic impact of MX$114.8 billion for the overall 2025-2026 holiday season, a 3.56% increase over the previous cycle. Vicente Gutiérrez, President, CANACO CDMX, described the festivities as a vital “engine of confidence” for the tertiary sector.

Market studies by Deloitte indicate a significant shift toward digital maturity, with one-third of Mexican consumers planning to conduct seasonal shopping online. Approximately 40% of shoppers began acquisitions in the first week of December to leverage sales events, with average gift ticket sizes ranging between US$31 and US$100 per item.

CONCANACO SERVYTUR urged consumers to verify official labeling (NOM-015-SCFI-2007) and maintain documentation for warranties, emphasizing that formal commerce is essential for economic integrity and consumer safety.