Mexico Forecasts MX$26 Billion in Día de Reyes Sales

Mexico’s established commercial sector expects an economic impact of MX$26.13 billion (US$1.6 billion) from the Día de Reyes (Epiphany Day) holiday on Jan. 6. The projection represents an 8% growth compared to 2025, driven largely by increased seasonal disposable income and the national minimum wage hike that went into effect on Jan. 1. The Confederation of National Chambers of Commerce, Services, and Tourism (CONCANACO SERVYTUR) reported that the holiday will stimulate activity across the country’s 2.68 million commercial establishments.

The 2026 forecast follows four consecutive years of steady growth in holiday-related spending. Historical data shows a consistent upward trajectory:

• 2023: MX$20 billion

• 2024: MX$22 billion (10% increase)

• 2025: MX$24.2 billion (10.12% increase)

Consumer demand is primarily concentrated in toys and electronics, followed by high sales in clothing, footwear, and perfumes. Additionally, the traditional bakery sector sees a significant surge due to the purchase of Rosca de Reyes, a cornerstone of the holiday that supports thousands of neighborhood bakeries and local family businesses.

Formal Commerce and Consumer Protection

Octavio de la Torre, President, CONCANACO SERVYTUR, emphasized the importance of purchasing from formal businesses to ensure product safety and support local employment. The holiday impacts approximately 36.2 million children in Mexico, making it a critical driver for the domestic internal market.

To protect consumers, the Confederation issued several recommendations:

• Verify Official Labeling: Toys must comply with NOM-015-SCFI-2007, featuring instructions in Spanish and recommended age ranges.

• Documentation: Consumers should request invoices or tickets to facilitate changes, returns, or warranties.

• E-commerce Safety: For online purchases, buyers are urged to verify seller reputation and use secure payment methods.

The Confederation noted that the 13% increase in the general minimum wage for 2026 is a key factor enabling families to maintain these cultural traditions while supporting the formal economy.

The National Chamber of Commerce, Services, and Tourism of Mexico City (CANACO CDMX) projected that the 2025 holiday season will generate an economic impact of MX$114.889 billion for the capital. This figure represents a 3.56% increase compared to 2024, signaling a period of steady recovery for the local economy. The number for actual spending is available as of Jan. 5. 

Vicente Gutiérrez, President, CANACO CDMX, described the year-end festivities as a vital "engine of confidence." He noted that the anticipated revenue provides stability for thousands of businesses and families dependent on the tertiary sector. The growth is expected to be driven by a combination of domestic consumer spending, national tourism, and an influx of international visitors to the city’s major destinations.

Mexican families were expected to spend approximately MX$6,207 on the traditional Christmas dinner, and regarding holiday gifts, the individual expenditure is estimated to range between MX$518 and MX$1,554. On a broader scale, the average total expenditure per family for holiday gifts is calculated at MX$4,144.

Gutiérrez emphasized the importance of purchasing from established, formal businesses to ensure product quality and warranties. This practice, he added, is essential for strengthening the local economy and maintaining the commercial integrity of the city.

The Shift Toward Digital, Planned Consumption

According to recent market studies by Deloitte, the 2025–2026 holiday cycle marks a significant shift toward digital maturity, as previously reported by MBN. Approximately one-third of Mexican consumers now plan to conduct the majority of their seasonal shopping through online channels, seeking the convenience and price transparency of e-commerce.

This digital transition is accompanied by a more "rational" and disciplined consumer behavior. Facing an economic climate perceived as more volatile than in previous years, families are prioritizing early planning to mitigate inflationary pressures. 

Nearly 40% of shoppers begin their holiday acquisitions as early as the first week of December to leverage major sales events like El Buen Fin and Black Friday for discounted toys and electronics. This proactive approach is paired with heightened budget sensitivity; while the volume of gift-giving remains stable at four to five gifts per family, average ticket sizes have become more calculated, generally ranging between US$31 and US$100 per item. 

Despite the surge in online activity, approximately 27% of shoppers still prefer the tactile experience of department stores for clothing and footwear, a habit that complements the digital safety and formal commerce recommendations issued by CONCANACO SERVYTUR.