Mexico’s Consumer Growth Cools as Tariffs Weigh on Key Sectors

The Mexican economy is showing signs of deceleration in key indicators amid the current tariff environment, signaling greater caution among households and businesses. Analyses from BBVA Research and Grupo Financiero Monex indicate a slowdown in private consumption, which is influencing organizations' strategic decisions.

BBVA Research reported a 0.3% month-over-month drop in private consumption in September, attributing it to a "weakening of consumer confidence." Monex noted that official data from INEGI showed private consumption fell 0.3% in July, following a 0.9% increase in June, reflecting growing caution in domestic spending.

Despite the challenging outlook, Juan Carlos Molina, Director, GS1 México, remains optimistic that the consumer sector—including traditional retail, department stores, and e-commerce—should maintain momentum, according to The Logistics World. 

Molina emphasized that companies must adapt to evolving consumer demands through a holistic customer-centric strategy. He cited Costco as an example of a company that has successfully placed the consumer at the heart of its strategy, highlighting the importance of delivering consistent experiences across both physical and digital channels.

The challenge, however, goes beyond understanding consumer needs; it lies in translating those experiences throughout the entire supply chain.

Molina underscored the need to strengthen the infrastructure supporting the point of sale. Improvements in transportation and cold chain logistics are critical to ensuring product quality, particularly given local logistical challenges such as inadequate infrastructure in certain regions of Mexico. Strengthening the supply chain not only enhances the customer experience but also boosts operational efficiency—an essential factor as corporate margins come under pressure from the economic slowdown.

A major transformation expected in the consumer sector is the imposition of tariffs on products from countries with which Mexico lacks trade agreements. Molina affirmed that “the tariffs are here to stay,” noting that they will affect consumers through higher prices and impact manufacturers and distributors alike.

While these tariffs pose challenges for many industries, they also present an opportunity to strengthen local sourcing. Molina, who leads the nonprofit organization that facilitates omnichannel commerce, explained that the restructuring of supply chains has become a necessity. The Mexican government’s Strategic Industries Protection Program aims to encourage local production and import substitution.

Molina forecasts that consumption across several sectors will continue to expand through 2026, though the pace of growth remains uncertain amid the slowdown. He concluded that the sector will keep advancing, but “the way of doing things will change,” emphasizing that a customer-centric approach will be the key differentiator for future business success.