Mexico’s Retail Sector Sees 3,000 New Stores, 5% Growth in 2026

The Mexican retail sector is poised for continued expansion in 2026 despite global uncertainty and economic deceleration. The industry expects to open at least 3,000 new stores across self-service, department, specialty, and convenience formats, according to a study by consultancy Todo Retail.

The forecast also projects retail sales growth of at least 5% in 2026, exceeding the rates anticipated by the National Association of Self-Service and Department Stores (ANTAD) for 2025 and those recorded in 2024.

Jorge Quiroga, Founder and CEO, Todo Retail, said retailers will focus on markets where they can still "discover new clients," allowing the sector to grow in both sales and openings even in a slowing economy. Mexico currently has 96,000 points of sale across self-service, department, convenience, and specialty channels.

ANTAD data indicates its members are expected to close 2025 with 3.9% same-store sales growth, slightly below the 4.2% recorded in 2024, a year in which more than 2,300 stores were opened.

Digitalization and Operational Risk

Retailers are expected to strengthen their e-commerce presence, accelerate digitalization, and increase investment in digital advertising. Consumer behavior continues to shift toward fewer store visits but higher average tickets, reflecting the economic environment, lower consumer confidence, and tighter household liquidity. Younger shoppers, in particular, are adjusting habits—managing spending more carefully, blending physical and digital purchases, and prioritizing price comparisons.

Quiroga warned that retailers failing to adapt and integrate artificial intelligence (AI) into operations—from supply and distribution to sales—risk losing competitiveness. He stressed that omnichannel practices, once viewed as a trend, are now essential to retail operations.