Demand Outlook, Energy Market Dynamics & Offtaker Priorities

As nearshoring accelerates and industrial activity expands, Mexico’s energy market is experiencing mounting pressure. This growth, led by sectors such as automotive, aerospace, and logistics, is straining the country’s transmission infrastructure and forcing both energy producers and consumers to reassess procurement models, risk management, and investment priorities, according to Andrea Lozano, President, AMSCA.

“Transmission bottlenecks and interconnection delays are becoming more frequent,” says Lozano. “This directly impacts how offtakers plan their energy sourcing and infrastructure timelines.”

For industrial users operating on tight delivery schedules and energy-dependent production lines, this pressure introduces significant risk. To address it, companies are increasingly adopting risk mitigation strategies such as load-shifting, backup generation, and energy storage. These approaches allow for continuity of service even when grid performance falters.

"In OEM production costs, energy may represent 3% to 5%, but throughout the supply chain, this can increase to 5%–10%, and even reach up to 15% downstream. In today's competitive landscape, this commercial environment energy users must become active energy managers," says Gabriel Padilla, Director General, INA.

Cecilia Alvarado, Chief Commercial Officer, ENGIE Mexico, noted that power producers are responding by diversifying generation portfolios. “We are designing hybrid models that combine renewable generation with storage and flexible dispatch capabilities,” she explains. “This allows us to better meet offtakers’ evolving requirements.”

The regulatory landscape, restrictions and uncertainty have complicated grid-based development, prompting large users to explore isolated supply models and behind-the-meter generation, according to Diego Arriola, Partner, Nxtlab. “Energy users today want control over their supply, not just in terms of price, but reliability and sustainability,” said Arriola. “The regulatory environment needs to catch up with these needs.” 

While storage is still subject to regulatory gaps, it is increasingly seen as a critical component for industrial autonomy. Power purchase agreements (PPAs) are also being restructured. Traditional long-term, fixed-price contracts are giving way to modular agreements, flexible pricing mechanisms, and, in some cases, virtual PPAs that support multinational procurement strategies.

Marco Cosío, Vice President of Smart Infrastructure, Siemens Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, highlights the trend toward dynamic contract structures. “We are seeing more indexing to market conditions and contracts that evolve with project phases or capacity expansions.”

As energy becomes increasingly intertwined with industrial competitiveness, both producers and consumers are moving beyond transactional relationships, experts say. “This is no longer just about selling or buying electricity,” says Gerardo Pandal, CEO, ELEIA Mexico. “It is about building a resilient operational model around energy.”

Padilla added that energy strategy is now a core business consideration. “For our industry, energy is a driver of productivity, and without a stable and scalable supply, growth is limited.”