Stop Crossing Your Fingers to Win in the Innovation Lottery

At Heilbronn Slush'D, the energy was electric. AI startups pitched bold visions, hoping their breakthrough would win the innovation lottery. But after two decades scaling science-based ventures, I’ve learned that real innovation doesn’t come from luck or hype. It comes from systematic alignment of key variables.

I was reminded of this while speaking with a young founder: strong tech, early funding, zero clarity on customers or sustainability. I’ve lived that story. It usually ends in silence, not scale.

Back in 2009, after my students at Tec de Monterrey won Cisco’s $250,000 global iPrize, I joined a Colombian scientist with a breakthrough electrostatic washing system (EWS). The tech worked. But the venture stalled. We underestimated the other ingredients: customer context, business model, and ecosystem allies. That project stayed with me. It became the spark for the six lessons I now share with AI founders solving real problems in complex systems.

Lesson 1 – No Demand, No Deal

In the rush to build AI solutions, it’s tempting to focus on what’s technically possible. But possibility isn’t the same as desirability. The foundation of successful innovation is unmet demand — a real, relevant, painful problem that customers are motivated to solve. Without that anchor, even the best technology will drift. The best tech in the world can’t sell a solution to a problem no one cares about. Start with demand, not code.

Lesson 2 – If They Don’t Get It, It Doesn’t Matter

Your expertise in AI technology and your “privilege” in starting from a blank slate is actually creating invisible barriers between you and your potential customers that are likely blinding you.

Even if your solution creates measurable value, that doesn’t mean customers will understand it, or act on it. Founders often suffer from the curse of knowledge. We forget how far ahead we are on the learning curve. For potential customers, your message can sound like background noise.

Innovation dies in translation if the customer can’t make sense of what you’re offering. The burden is on you to bridge the gap and translate value into their language, context, and priorities.

Lesson 3 – Trial Isn’t Triumph

Once you understand how your AI solution creates value, you’ll need to go beyond demos and pilots. You’ll have to hit the ground floor —  literally — and make adoption feel effortless and risk-free for the people who live in your customer’s reality.

That means identifying real decision-makers, packaging your product in their language, and surrounding it with services they didn’t even know they needed: integration, training, feedback loops. Why? Because you’re likely not just selling a tool, you’re guiding change. And that takes more than good tech. It takes empathy, clarity, and the humility to meet your users where they are.

Lesson 4 – Tech Doesn’t Monetize Itself

Some innovations create their own category, which is both a strength and a risk. That was the case with the EWS. We weren’t just launching a product. We were challenging detergents, machines, and the entire business models of other suppliers.

And that’s where things got complicated. Without a sound business model designed for the early stages of that category’s life cycle, we were spread too thin, fighting on too many fronts. Our innovation was real, but we lacked the commercial architecture to protect, scale, and monetize it.

Fortunately, at Interlub, we took a different approach. Our founder designed a phase-one model focused on building trust with name-brand clients and evangelists. That gave us the leverage to grow, evolve, and invest further. Without an appropriate business model for each stage of your evolution, great tech stays small.

Lesson 5 – Culture Scales What Code Can’t

Back when we were trying to commercialize the EWS, we thought we had everything in place: a breakthrough technology, clear value for customers, an appropriate business model. But behind the scenes, we were running on fumes culturally.

Our team was full of smart, mission-inspired people. But we lacked rhythm, experience and trust. Not every smart founder is humble enough to an employee, so in 12 months our talent churn was as high as our customer churn.

At Interlub, we leveraged Gustavo Razzetti’s Fearless Culture tools to articulate and shape the culture we need to evolve. Culture is what lets people stay through the storm.

Lesson 6 – You Won’t Win Without Backup

Back when we were trying to push the EWS into the world, we thought we were just one big customer away from scaling. But looking back, we weren’t just missing demand, we were missing backup.

If you’re in the AI game, you likely also have no partners to open doors, no trusted voices to vouch for you, nor a community to challenge your blind spots. However, in complex systems, where entrenched interests resist change and buyers default to what’s safe, that isolation will be fatal. Lone wolves burn out. Build alliances early.

It Takes Six Numbers to Win the AI Lottery

At Heilbronn Slush'D, Matt Domo said that, "It takes Six Numbers to win the lottery." So, I believe that winning the AI lottery depends on:

• Clear demand
• A differentiated technology
• A compelling product/solution
• A business model that fits the moment
• A culture that turns setbacks into fuel
• An appropriate ecosystem that catalyzes your potential

Miss one, and you’re stuck spinning your wheels. Align them, and innovation becomes something you can actually build, not just hope for.

We know that the winners won’t be the ones who bet big. They’ll be the ones who got the six numbers right.  That’s why we started Interlub’s Innovation Hub in Heilbronn’s innovation ecosystem. So far, we have found a rare mix of ambition, talent, and momentum here that makes alignment possible — and excuses harder. 
 

About the author

Daniel Pandza is the global director for innovation partnerships at Interlub—The Uncommon Lubricant Company®, a company that is celebrated for its pioneering spirit and distinctive leadership philosophy. Its stewardship has led Interlub to receive national accolades from the president of Mexico on three occasions: the National Export Award (2017) for significantly exporting Mexican technology to over 40 countries; the National Quality Award (2018) for its exceptional business model; and the National Technology and Innovation Award (2019), which highlights its dedication to advancing scientific paradigms globally through innovation.