From Dependency to Strategy: Mexico’s Path to Export Resilience

The United States has significantly influenced Mexico’s export narrative since the mid-20th century, particularly since the enactment of NAFTA in 1994 and later deepening the agreement with the USMCA in 2020. Last year, our northern neighbor accounted for 84.2% of all our exports, reaching a new historical record of US$496.80 billion, a 6.22% increase year-on-year compared to 2023 — figures that underscore both the strength and vulnerability of our export model. 

While regional integration under the USMCA has empowered our manufacturers and deepened economic ties with North America, it has also reinforced a dependency on the United States. 

The latest trade balance data shows continued growth in June 2025, reflecting both solid demand and Mexico’s competitive positioning: total exports increased 10.6% (up to US$54 billion) while imports rose 4.4% (more than US$53.48 billion) compared to the previous year. However, 84.14% of our exports still go to the United States. 

Precisely because of this dominance, any disruption can disproportionately affect exporters in Mexico, whether through tariff threats, regulatory shifts, or geopolitical tensions. 

A single-buyer model is proving increasingly unsustainable amid shifting global trade flows. 

Mexico can no longer be defined by a single neighbor’s market appetite. We must broaden our horizons to Canada, Asia, Europe, and to regional partners. Our export success under the USMCA is real and praiseworthy, but it must serve as a launching pad, not the finish line. 

Mexico has begun shifting course in recent months: Mexican merchandise exports to Canada grew by 10.03% (US$8.22 billion), to the European Union by a modest 1.49% (US$10.85 billion), and to Asia by 5.91% (US$12.77 billion) between January and May 2025. This shift reflects not only the resilience of Mexican exporters but also the emergence of a more diversified trade map. 

Export growth is also diversifying across strategic sectors, from automotive and electronics to agriculture. We are negotiating new manufacturing input deals with Japan, Mexican avocados are poised to reach Brazil anytime soon, some countries in Latin America are becoming our second largest automotive market, meanwhile the modernization of the agreement with the European Union is underway —opening new channels for growth and cooperation. 

Diversification demands more than ambition. It requires institutional scaffolding and policy coordination. Mexico’s vast network of trade agreements is often overlooked. I believe we should activate it strategically: 14 Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with 52 countries, 30 Agreements for Reciprocal Promotion and Protection of Investments (APPRIs), and nine Economic Complementation Agreements and Partial Scope Agreements within the Latin American Integration Association (LAIA). New opportunities across Latin America, Asia, and Europe are redefining Mexico’s new commercial identity. 

In order to reach these new markets, we require coordinated efforts in trade diplomacy, exploring trade promotion through underutilized agreements, investing in market intelligence, and developing capacity-building initiatives. Both small- and midsize exporters must be supported to navigate international regulations, obtain certifications, and access financing. These are not luxuries, they are prerequisites for competitiveness. 

Yet, diversification for Mexico should not be just a risk-mitigation tool but a strategic advantage. It could enhance global competitiveness, attract investment, and position us as a reliable player in global supply chains. Expanding into more markets does not mean abandoning the United States, it means building insurance through opportunity and forging resilience through variety. When one market slows, another can compensate. When tariffs hit one region, our exporters can pivot to keep their businesses open. 

If we aspire to be a global trade leader, this is the moment to act. 

We must rethink our trade architecture beyond North America's borders while equipping our entrepreneurs with the tools they need to thrive globally. To achieve this, all exporters, policymakers, financial institutions, and trade bodies must align efforts behind a single objective: to make Mexico a global exporter, not just a regional one. 

Only then will we move from being a reactive manufacturing hub (shaped by external demand and regional cycles) to a resilient trading nation that defines its terms, navigates global turbulence with agility, and plays a proactive role in the world economy. Diversification is not just a strategy, it is a responsibility to the future of our exports, our businesses, and Mexico's prosperity.