Mexico’s Export Momentum: The Fourth-Quarter Opportunity

Mexico is approaching the final stretch of 2025, a decisive time when global demand, logistics, and strategy are converging to define both our trade performance and economic outcome. Despite tariff uncertainty and global slowdowns, the outlook for our external sector remains positive. I join experts and specialists in expecting Mexican exports to close the year with an approximate 4.3% increase, following steady gains over the first seven months as our economy has proven its resilience and our trade sector is clearly driving growth. 

According to the latest International Merchandise Trade Statistics of Mexico (BCMM), our trade deficit widened to US$1.9 billion in August 2025. This occurred as the surplus in goods shrank sharply from US$2.12 billion in July to just US$293 million in August, while the petroleum deficit deepened from more than US$2.1 billion to nearly US$2.3 billion in the same period.

The BCMM balance also showed a US$528 million deficit between January and August 2025 — as a reference, the same period last year registered a US$17.98 billion deficit. However, exports of goods surpassed US$55.7 billion in August 2025, a 7.4% increase compared to the same month last year. This rate resulted from an 8.9% increase in non-oil exports and a 26.3% drop in oil exports. Among goods, exports to the United States grew 7.4% annually, and exports to the rest of the world rose 16.8%. 

These numbers underscore a couple of signals: the strong integration with the United States, which absorbs nearly 84% of our exports, and our resilient manufacturing base that continues to expand even amid global turbulence.

The Fourth-Quarter Mandate

Yet, optimism must not lead to complacency. The scenario we face highlights some key challenges: sustaining competitiveness while adapting to shifting trade dynamics, tariff pressures, and slower global demand. The momentum we see today could face headwinds next year, as a mild contraction may occur before rebounding later in the year. 

The real opportunity for Mexico lies in using this fourth quarter to strengthen what we already do well and modernize what still limits us. Export resilience depends not only on production, but also on the efficiency of the logistics system that supports it. From border crossings to customs processes and from port infrastructure to railway networks, our ability to move goods defines how far our export engine can go.

I am convinced that Mexico needs a deliberate strategy to close 2025 with solid growth and a stronger position heading into 2026. This means expanding export financing for SMEs, diversifying trade destinations beyond North America, and accelerating the modernization of customs and multimodal transport. Mexico’s trade infrastructure must evolve as fast as its production capacity.

Part of this effort also involves empowering our SMEs to integrate into value chains and increase regional content — a crucial step to fully leverage the advantages of the USMCA and the coming review of the trade agreement. Strengthening domestic linkages is not just a regulatory objective but a competitiveness strategy: when local suppliers gain access to global production networks, the value of every exported product multiplies within the country. This integration helps reduce dependence on imported inputs, shortens supply chains, and amplifies the benefits of trade through innovation, employment, and tax revenue.

I believe building stronger domestic ecosystems ensures that the success of our exports translates into national prosperity. Mexico can capture a larger share of manufacturing value added by investing in supplier development, export financing, and training programs for certification and quality standards. This is how trade resilience becomes inclusive growth: ensuring that more Mexicans participate in the process.

This fourth-quarter of 2025 is more than a closing period. It’s a window to consolidate export momentum, strengthen resilience, and lay the groundwork for a more balanced 2026. 

Mexico can transform this moment into a launchpad for recovery and expansion if we act with coordination and foresight. I am sure our future growth will depend not on how much we export, but on how intelligently we trade.