Mexico’s 2025 Growth Forecast Rises to 0.53%: Banxico Survey

Private-sector analysts have increased their growth forecast for Mexico’s economy to 0.53% this year, according to the latest survey by Mexico’s Central Bank (Banxico).

The revision marks the fourth consecutive monthly increase, up from 0.46% projected last month and 0.18% in May.

Survey participants—45 national and foreign economic consulting groups—also revised downward their inflation outlook. They now expect annual inflation to close 2025 at 3.85%, down from 3.95% in August. This represents the third consecutive monthly downward adjustment since June, when expectations peaked at 4.07%.

Jonathan Heath, deputy governor, Banxico, noted in interviews that market expectations reflect confidence in the central bank’s ability to guide inflation. Banxico projects that inflation will reach its 3% target by the second quarter of next year, though the survey suggests the market does not expect this goal to be achieved before 2027. Analysts forecast inflation at 3.80% in 2026 and 3.71% in 2027.

The central bank is expected to continue easing monetary policy. With the benchmark interest rate currently at 7.50%, analysts project it will end the year at 7.14%, compared with 7.27% in last month’s survey. This outlook implies a reduction of nearly 40 basis points across the two remaining meetings this year, scheduled for Nov. 6 and Dec. 18.

Survey responses also indicated continued caution on investment. About 81% of specialists said the economy is not better than a year ago, though this was an improvement from 89% in the previous survey. Sixteen percent anticipate the business climate will worsen, 25% expect improvement, and 59% believe it will remain unchanged.

When asked about investment conditions, 43% said the current environment is unfavorable for investing, 9% considered it favorable, and 48% were uncertain.