New US Monetary Cycle Is Driving Real Estate Evolution in 2026

For the US market, 2025 was a significant year of transition. After a prolonged cycle of rate hikes that began in 2022 — necessary to contain inflation that had reached historically high levels — the Federal Reserve began a process of gradual cuts: first in September, reducing the range to 4.00%–4.25%, and again in October, to 3.75%–4.00%, confirming expectations of a monetary normalization process. Financing conditions influence every stage of a project, from land acquisition and development to refinancing and eventual sale, so a clearer rate outlook becomes a core element of medium- and long-term strategy.

The prior adjustment process was demanding: debt became more expensive and some segments needed more time to absorb supply. Many projects had to be reassessed, and investors became more selective, prioritizing assets with strong fundamentals and conservative leverage. That discipline, though sometimes uncomfortable, helped clean up balance sheets, slow speculative excesses, and ultimately clarify which projects were truly sustainable over time. Today, with inflation moving toward 2.5%–3%, a solid labor market, and economic activity growing at a healthy pace, the United States presents a combination that has restored momentum to multiple real estate segments and rebuilt the confidence of international capital.

This year, the multifamily sector once again demonstrated its strength: absorption resumed its growth, vacancy remained contained, and many cities returned to a more stable pattern, without the shocks that characterized the post-pandemic phase. Even property types that had been under greater pressure, such as offices, began to show a gradual stabilization process. At the same time, foreign investment increased again, with Mexico among the main buyers of residential properties in the United States. That flow is not an isolated data point: it reflects confidence in a market with a strong currency, predictable regulatory frameworks, and liquidity that supports investors from entry to exit. For Latin American investors facing more volatile domestic cycles, participating in a market with these characteristics is a way to diversify risk while maintaining exposure to real assets.

Against this backdrop, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of consolidation. The combination of lower inflationary pressures, interest rates in the process of normalizing, and economic growth that is moderate but firm is creating a more predictable environment for real estate assets. Construction activity is also beginning to moderate, helping to better balance supply and demand and reducing the risk of new imbalances in the main urban centers.

Macroeconomic stabilization not only supports the operating performance of assets, it also improves investors’ ability to plan. When interest rates cease to be a disruptive factor and prices adjust to more efficient levels, the focus moves away from short-term noise and shifts toward operating quality: how each asset is performing today, what cash flows it generates, and how solid the management behind it is. That approach, which is more oriented toward real metrics than projections, is starting to shape the market’s more prudent decisions.

This latest cycle left us with a clear lesson: the most consistent returns come from assets that deliver verifiable results, not from exuberant expectations. Prices make sense when they are backed by healthy operations, and institutional strength becomes more relevant: stable regulatory frameworks, deep liquidity, and a financial system that allows efficient entry and exit are advantages that few markets offer with the consistency of the United States. For investors in Mexico and the rest of Latin America, understanding this combination of macro stability and operational solidity is key to building portfolios that can weather different phases of the cycle without losing their long-term direction.

In conclusion, the US real estate market continues to stand out for Latin American capital. Its scale, predictability, and the resilience shown in recent years strengthen its position as a strategic investment destination for those seeking stable, long-term exposure to real assets in a mature market.