Trump Threatens Tariffs Over Mexico’s Water Treaty Shortfall

The ongoing water dispute between the United States and Mexico is intensifying, with US President Donald Trump threatening to impose tariffs and even sanctions if Mexico fails to comply with its obligations under the 1944 Water Treaty. The issue, which centers on water deliveries from Mexico to Texas, has become a new flashpoint in the broader bilateral tensions — this time with potentially significant trade implications.

“Mexico OWES Texas 1.3 million acre-feet of water under the 1944 Water Treaty. My Agriculture Secretary, Brooke Rollins, is standing up for Texas Farmers, and we will keep escalating consequences, including TARIFFS and, maybe even SANCTIONS, until Mexico honors the Treaty,” writes Trump on Truth Social. 

Trump blamed Mexico for the closure of Texas’ only sugar mill, accusing it of “stealing water from Texas farmers,” and criticized Former President Joe Biden for inaction. He emphasized his commitment to enforcing treaty obligations and protecting agricultural producers in South Texas.

In response, President Claudia Sheinbaum called for diplomacy and cooperation. “A comprehensive proposal to address the water deliveries to Texas under the 1944 Treaty was sent to the US Deputy Secretary of State yesterday,” she said in a statement posted on X. Sheinbaum noted that severe drought over the past three years has limited water availability, but assured that Mexico has been making every effort to comply.

Under the 1944 Water Treaty, Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, Mexico is required to deliver a minimum of 350,000 acre-feet (431.7m3) of water per year over five-year cycles, amounting to 1.75 million acre-feet (2,158.6m3) over the full period. If deficits occur due to drought or infrastructure issues, they must be made up in the next cycle. 

However, according to the International Boundary and Water Commission (IBWC), Mexico has delivered only 512,604 acre-feet from Oct. 25, 2020, through April 5, 2025 — just 29.2% of the required volume, with less than a year left in the current cycle. As a result, previous complaints were filed by US Senator Ted Cruz, as well as the US Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins, MBN reported.

On March 31, the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs officially denied Mexico's request for a special delivery channel from the Colorado River to Tijuana, Baja California. “As a result, today for the first time, the United States will deny Mexico's non-treaty request for a special delivery channel for Colorado River water to be delivered to Tijuana,” wrote the Bureau in X, as previously reported by MBN.

Sheinbaum confirmed that the IBWC is actively identifying cooperative solutions and that she has instructed the relevant ministries to work directly with their US counterparts to address this problem.