Cargo Theft Surges Nationwide as Holiday Season Approaches

As the holiday season approaches, Mexico is confronting a sharp rise in cargo theft, a trend that is amplifying long-standing concerns over road insecurity and the vulnerability of the country’s supply chains. 

Official data from the Executive Ministry of the National Public Security System (SESNSP) shows a 14.71% national increase in cargo theft, with four of the five most affected states experiencing significant spikes. The State of Mexico registered an 8% increase, Puebla 8.3%, Oaxaca 66.6%, and Michoacan 208%. San Luis Potosi was the only state in the top five to report a decrease, at 2.27%.

These figures mirror social unrest visible on the ground. Throughout October and November, farmers and truck drivers launched a series of increasingly urgent mobilizations. Early in October, agricultural workers in Michoacan protested following the murder of lemon producer and agrarian leader Bernardo Bravo, demanding guarantees of safety. This was followed by a nationwide wave of highway blockades that began on Nov. 24, 2025, led by the National Association of Transporters (ANTAC) and the National Front for the Rescue of Mexican Farmland (FNRCM). The demonstrations, spanning more than 25 states, targeted crucial corridors, customs zones, and industrial routes, calling for real security on Mexico’s roads and fairer conditions for rural and freight sectors.

Regional Trends

Despite the national increase, data from AssistCargo covering September-October 2025 shows a nuanced distribution of theft hotspots. The State of Mexico remains the country’s most affected entity due to its concentration of industrial hubs and constant flow of cargo vehicles. Still, it recorded a slight two-percentage-point decrease compared to the previous period.

Meanwhile, Puebla is closing in on first place, driven largely by the persistent use of fake police checkpoints. Guanajuato, a strategic link for automotive, food, and manufacturing flows, remains among the top three despite a small one-point decrease, according to AssistCargo. Michoacan, however, climbed to the fourth position nationally, in just six months displacing states like Jalisco, Veracruz, San Luis Potosi, and Hidalgo. Jalisco, once a top-four state, fell to fifth place after a two-point decline.

AssistCargo also identified the most frequently stolen goods: food and beverages (28%), construction materials (11%), textiles (10%), auto parts (9%), electronics (8%), technology (7%), pharmaceuticals (6%), wine and liquor (5%), and other goods (16%). With holiday demand surging, theft of technology, electronics, textiles, and alcohol is expected to rise sharply in the coming months.

The most stolen vehicle types were tractor-trailers (42%), light cargo units under 3.5 tons (23%), torton trucks (18%), rabon trucks (13%), and double-trailers (4%). Over 52% of thefts occur in transit, with Fridays posing the highest risk (21%), particularly from 6:00 p.m. to midnight (29%).

High-Risk Corridors

Multiple highways across central and western Mexico now rank among the most dangerous for cargo transportation. The highest-exposure corridors include:

• Arco Norte (Jilotepec–San Martin Texmelucan)

• Mexico–Puebla 150D (San Marcos Huixtoco–San Martin Texmelucan)

• Highway 57 SLP–Matehuala (La Pila–Matehuala junction)

• Mexico–Queretaro (Cuautitlan Izcalli–Pedro Escobedo)

• Puebla–Veracruz 150D (Maltrata–La Tinaja)

• Queretaro–Irapuato (Apaseo El Grande–Cerro Gordo)

• Guadalajara–Atlacomulco 15D (Panindicuaro–Atlacomulco)

• Matehuala–Monterrey 57 (Matehuala–San Roberto)

• Salamanca–Leon 43D (Cerro Gordo–Leon)

• Acatlan de Juarez–Guadalajara Macrolibramiento

• Cordoba–Minatitlan 145D (La Tinaja–Acayucan)

• Circuito Exterior Mexiquense (Zumpango–Chalco)

• Guadalajara–Lagos de Moreno 80D

• Queretaro–San Luis Potosi

• Lazaro Cardenas–Uruapan 37D

Historically, the second half of the year brings an average 16% surge in cargo theft due to increased freight movement for the December season.

Shifting Criminal Activity Across Regions

The 3Q25 report from Overhaul confirms a geographical realignment of crime. The central and southeastern regions (Quadrant IV) still account for 79.3% of national cargo theft incidents, though this represents a 6.2-point reduction from 2Q25. Meanwhile, Quadrants I, II, and III all experienced increases.

About 80% of all cargo theft remains concentrated in the Central (48%) and Bajío (32%) regions. Ten states alone represented 87% of national incidents in 2Q25, with Puebla (23%) and the State of Mexico (18%) accounting for nearly half of all cases.

Compared to 3Q24, Puebla decreased 4 points, State of Mexico decreased 1 point, Michoacan rose 4 points, Veracruz rose 3 points, and Guanajuato, San Luis Potosi, Tlaxcala, and Nuevo Leon rose 1 point each.

Criminal activity peaks Monday-Friday (86%), especially from Tuesday to Friday (72%). The most dangerous hours are 6:00 p.m. to 6:00 a.m., with notable spikes from 4:00-10:00 a.m. (32%) and 8:00–11:00 p.m. (25%).

The top stolen product categories for 3Q25 were food and beverages (25%), auto parts (12%), and miscellaneous items (10%), the latter driven by mixed loads such as e-commerce parcels. Electronics and metal products also saw notable increases.

Electronic cargo theft is expected to grow during Buen Fin, Christmas, and New Year sales. From January to September 2025, electronics represented 3% of all cargo thefts nationwide, with 79% of incidents concentrated in the State of Mexico (32%), Guanajuato (18%), Jalisco (15%), Puebla (9%), and Michoacan (6%).

Half of these cases occurred in transit, and 46% occurred during cargo stops. The most dangerous routes were MEX-57D (15%) and MEX-45D (12%). Most incidents occurred between midnight and 9:00 a.m., particularly on Wednesdays (21%) and Thursdays (26%).

Insurance Data Confirms the Downward Recovery Trend

According to the Mexican Association of Insurance Institutions (AMIS), from November 2024 to October 2025, cargo theft increased by 8.72%, while vehicle recovery rates declined by 9.71%. The municipalities with the highest rates of insured heavy-equipment theft were San Luis Potosi, Puebla, Queretaro, Ecatepec de Morelos, and Cuautitlan Izcalli. The most frequently stolen brands included Kenworth, Freightliner, International, and units such as dry vans, tanks, and dollies.