Global Shipping Faces Fragile Growth, Market Corrections

The global container shipping sector is navigating one of its most complex periods in years, marked by rising costs, geopolitical disruption, and diverging market signals. According to Drewry’s Container Forecaster 3Q25, containership charter rates remain on an upward trajectory, still 200% higher than in 2019, despite the sharp fall in spot freight rates. However, the consultancy warns that a market correction is inevitable after a five-year boom.

At the same time, UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) paints a broader picture of a fragile maritime economy. Global shipping, which moves over 80% of the world’s merchandise trade, is entering a period of stagnation. After firm expansion in 2024, seaborne trade growth is projected to slow to just 0.5% in 2025, signaling a near standstill. Long-distance rerouting caused by geopolitical tensions led to a record 6% increase in ton-miles in 2024, but at the cost of operational efficiency and stability.

Diverging Markets and Supply Constraints

Drewry highlights several structural and geopolitical factors behind the disconnect between freight and charter markets:

1. Tight Vessel Availability: Major carriers such as MSC and CMA CGM have absorbed large volumes of second-hand tonnage, reducing the pool available to non-operating owners (NOOs). Liner-owned fleets now account for 64% of the global total, up from 54% in 2019, limiting supply and pushing up charter rates

2. Geopolitical Disruptions: Ongoing insecurity in the Red Sea and diversions around the Cape of Good Hope have extended voyage times, reduced vessel availability, and inflated charter demand

3. Strategic Carrier Behavior: Carriers, prioritizing service reliability and alliance commitments, are securing long-term charters as a hedge against volatility

4. Regulatory Pressures: Emissions regulations under the IMO and EU ETS have intensified demand for dual-fuel and eco-efficient ships, creating a “scarcity premium” for compliant vessels.

A Global Trade System in Flux

UNCTAD warns that political tensions, new tariffs, and shifting shipping routes are redefining global trade geography. The United States and several partners have introduced new trade measures, including tariffs and port fees targeting foreign-built or foreign-operated vessels, which could raise costs further. These shifts have led to more rerouting, skipped port calls, and higher overall transport costs, MBN reports.

Meanwhile, energy shipping patterns are also shifting: coal and oil volumes are declining amid decarbonization efforts, while gas trade continues to grow.

Environmental and Digital Transitions at the Core

The IMO’s upcoming Net-Zero Framework, which will introduce a global greenhouse gas pricing mechanism by 2028, demands unprecedented investment in clean fuels and port infrastructure. Yet only 8% of the global fleet is equipped for alternative fuels, highlighting the scale of modernization required.

Digitalization is also reshaping port strategies, as operators accelerate efforts to improve efficiency, reduce emissions, and adapt to new trade realities.

Outlook

Drewry expects the freight–charter rate gap to persist through most of 2026, with average charter rates continuing to edge upward while global freight rates could decline by around 16%. Eventually, the combination of slowing demand, squeezed carrier margins, newbuild vessel deliveries, and the reopening of the Suez Canal route is expected to trigger a correction.

In parallel, UNCTAD emphasizes that sustainable growth will depend on how effectively the shipping industry manages its twin transitions environmental and digital, while navigating geopolitical and regulatory turbulence.