Mexico Battles Cargo Theft Amid Driver Shortage Crisis

Mexico’s cargo transportation sector is grappling with a dual crisis: a growing shortage of truck drivers and a surge in cargo theft that threatens the stability of supply chains critical to the national economy. These worrying trends are leading operators to adopt emerging technologies to protect trucks and drivers. 

According to the National Chamber of Cargo Transportation (CANACAR), the country faced a deficit of 56,000 drivers in 2023. This gap is projected to nearly double to 106,000 by 2028, at the same time that Mexico’s road freight market is expected to expand from US$43.13 billion in 2024 to US$59.02 billion by 2030. Trucking is responsible for 3.78% of Mexico’s GDP and 81% of land cargo transport, MBN reports.

Recruitment efforts are being undermined by worsening security conditions. A transport vehicle is stolen every 38 minutes in Mexico, with 86% of these incidents involving violence, according to Motive Mexico. The National Public Security System (SESNSP) reported a 3.59% decrease in thefts between June and July 2025.

This insecurity directly affects the profession’s attractiveness. Drivers earn on average MX$293.06 (US$14.38) per day, wages considered insufficient for a high-risk job that often involves exposure to extortion, hijackings, and even kidnappings. With younger generations and women largely absent, only 1.9% of Mexican drivers are female, compared to 8% in the United States, the workforce is both shrinking and aging.

Hotspots and Tactics

According to Luis Villatoro, President, ANERPV, cargo theft is concentrated in central Mexico, which accounts for 60% of incidents, followed by the Bajio and western regions. Between May and June 2025, the State of Mexico topped the list of cargo theft cases, followed by Puebla, Guanajuato, and San Luis Potosi. Criminal tactics are also evolving: while theft once targeted only cargo, gangs now routinely steal the cargo, trailer, and truck, often using firearms to intimidate drivers.

Highways such as MEX-45D (Queretaro–Jalisco) and Federal 57 (Queretaro–San Luis Potosi) remain hotspots, with municipalities including Celaya, Apaseo el Grande, and San Jose Iturbide particularly vulnerable. Food and beverages continue to be the most stolen category, followed by building materials, textiles, auto parts, and metals such as steel and copper.

SESNSP figures for July 2025 highlight the complexity of the problem. While the national average showed a 3.59% decrease in cargo theft, state-level data varied sharply. The State of Mexico registered a 7% decline, and Puebla saw a drop of 7.8%. Jalisco remained stable, while Nuevo Leon reported an 8.33% increase. San Luis Potosi saw theft rise by 40.7%, Michoacan surged by 55%, and Morelos registered the steepest increase at 150%. 

According to AMIS data, vehicle theft is also rising. Between August 2024 and July 2025, theft of insured heavy vehicles increased by 0.2%, while recoveries fell by 0.73%. Semi-trailers saw theft rise by 1.5%, with recoveries dropping by 4%. Brands most affected include Kenworth, Freightliner, and International.

Industry Response

Private operators are responding with stricter protocols and advanced technology. “This impacts our clients the most, as losing a truck or trailer can halt operations and production. To mitigate this, we provide immediate replacement units so they can continue operating without major interruptions. We have also strengthened insurance coverage to ensure faster recovery and reduced financial losses. Our goal is to minimize downtime and protect clients from the operational and economic impact of theft,” says Mauricio Medina, General Manager, TIP México, to MBN.

Mexlog has also adopted strict risk management strategies to safeguard its operations. “While we are not immune, we have effective systems in place that allow us to react quickly. For example, we operate strictly during daylight hours and only use toll roads. We also enforce strict stop-point protocols, designating ‘green points’ where drivers are allowed to stop. If a theft occurs at a particular stop, that location is immediately flagged as a red zone, and we never allow stops there again. We adapt quickly and are constantly evolving our safety strategy based on real-time experience,” says Gustavo Vildosola, Director General, Mexlog, to MBN.

Industry associations are also mobilizing. The Latin American Security Association (ALAS) and the National Council of Logistics and Supply Chain Executives (ConaLog) have partnered to promote technology-driven solutions, including video surveillance adapted to transport and advanced access control for distribution centers, reports MBN.

Government Strategy

The federal government has launched targeted operations targeting this problem. These include the Balam Strategy, introduced in 2024, and the Zero Robberies Operation, which authorities say have reduced theft on major highways such as Mexico-Queretaro and Mexico-Puebla by up to 55%. The National Guard has expanded patrols and integrated drone surveillance in states like Puebla, while broader security policies aim to strengthen justice systems, dismantle organized crime networks, and regulate freight operations.

During a recent press conference, President Claudia Sheinbaum stated that from October 2024 to August 2025, security forces reported over 30,000 arrests for high-impact crimes, the seizure of over 15,000 firearms, and the dismantling of over 1,300 clandestine laboratories. Still, industry executives remain cautious, noting that despite official progress, risks remain high along strategic corridors.

Back in July 2025, the federal government also outlined a broader National Infrastructure and Transport Plan, introduced by Deputy Minister of Communications and Transportation, Tania Carro. The plan is based on five strategic pillars, two of which are directly linked to the fight against cargo theft. The first is road safety, with an emphasis on enhancing coordination between the National Guard, the Ministry of Security and Citizen Protection, and the National Public Security System. Measures include stricter enforcement of weight and dimension compliance as well as revisions to the NOM-012-SCT-2-2017 safety standard. The second pillar is regulation, focused on organizing and monitoring tow truck services and cracking down on irregular freight operations, particularly in high-risk corridors such as Oaxaca and Puebla-Tlaxcala.

A Structural Challenge

The convergence of driver shortages, violent theft, and weak generational renewal signals a looming structural crisis for Mexico’s trucking sector. Training centers graduate fewer than 2,000 drivers annually, far short of industry needs. Without deeper reforms in working conditions, pay, and security, experts warn that Mexico’s role as a logistics hub, vital to its nearshoring boom, could be undermined.

“Logistics and the supply chain cannot stop, and security cannot be absent,” says As Jaqueline León, President, ALAS Committee in Mexico. The resilience of Mexico’s trade flows may ultimately depend on how quickly the country closes its labor gap and secures its highways.

Follow our MBS 2025 tag and do not miss our coverage leading to Mexico Business Summit 2025 on October 28–29, 2025. On Tuesday, July 29, 2025, we will delve into how supply chain optimization can help companies counter geopolitical uncertainty. 

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