Optimizing Freight Movement: The Future of Intermodal Logistics

Mexico’s logistics landscape is evolving as global disruptions push manufacturers to strengthen supply chain resilience. Companies are moving away from the traditional Just in Time model toward strategies that include greater inventory protection, diversified routing, and multimodal redundancy. This shift is reshaping service expectations and risk management requirements for transport operators, particularly those involved in cross-border logistics.

Freight transport stands as the backbone of Mexico’s foreign trade, trucking accounts for 3.78% of the GDP and moves 81% of land cargo and 57% of domestic freight, connecting production sites, ports, customs facilities, and consumer hubs. Without adequate drivers, industries like construction, electronics, and automotive, which heavily rely on trucking, face potential supply chain disruptions. Its performance directly influences national competitiveness, security, and economic stability. Heading into 2025, the sector faces a convergence of pressures: tariff volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, driver shortages, inflationary dynamics, and persistent security risks on key freight corridors, writes Augusto Ramos, Vice President, RAME Autotransportes.

“Understanding the shifting paradigms in intermodal transport is crucial. Rising pressure on inventory management and storage costs, along with growing demand for traceability and compliance, make resilience more vital than ever. Reliability has become a key expectation. Intermodal transport is not a substitute for trucking but a multiplier that enhances overall efficiency and connectivity across the logistics network,” says Ramos.

North America Trade: Growth and Uncertainty

Maintaining efficiency at the Mexico-US border has become central to national competitiveness. Although Mexico remains the United States’ top trading partner, infrastructure constraints continue to generate operational frictions. From January to July 2025, Mexico’s exports to the US increased 6.5% year-on-year to US$309.7 billion, driven by automotive and electronics manufacturing. This growth places added pressure on intermodal capacity, inspection systems, and customs procedures, MBN reports.

However, recent tariff measures in the United States have raised costs across supply chains. Import duties of 100% on semiconductors, 50% on steel and aluminum, and 25% on vehicles have already contributed to profit declines exceeding 30% for General Motors, while Stellantis has reported multimillion-dollar losses. Analysts warn that these conditions may tighten further as the USMCA undergoes review, potentially affecting rules of origin enforcement and inspection protocols.

Infrastructure and Intermodal Strategy

Government policy aims to support logistic integration. The 2026 Federal Expenditure Budget allocates MX$104.5 billion (US$5.59 billion) to rail development to reinforce freight mobility and strengthen Mexico’s role in North American supply chains. Funding also advances south-southeast connectivity projects, including MX$30 billion (US$1.61 billion) for the Mayan Train freight service and MX$25 billion for the Interoceanic Corridor of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. These projects seek to establish new intermodal hubs linking ports, railways, and industrial centers.

Complementary investments in highways such as Ciudad Valles–Tampico and Saltillo–Monclova, combined with the rollout of 15 regional Well-Being Hubs, reflect a broader infrastructure modernization agenda. These initiatives are aligned under Plan México, a federal strategy focused on logistics, energy distribution, regulatory simplification, and financial incentives to support nearshoring-driven industrial expansion.

Customs modernization plays a critical role in enabling seamless freight movement. Mexico’s Senate recently approved reforms to strengthen digitalization, traceability, and trade enforcement without introducing new taxes. The changes will take effect on Jan. 1, 2026 and aim to reduce border delays, improve transparency, and streamline documentation. Both Mexico and the United States are exploring interoperable platforms for real-time tracking, digital pre-clearance, shared databases, and mutual recognition of compliance programs. 

“The most important thing is alignment between the public and private sectors. Mexico’s progress and modernization depend on coordinated infrastructure investments placed where they are truly needed. There’s no point in having a state-of-the-art port if the connecting roads are in poor condition. While Mexico has evolved, demand has outpaced progress, and we must move faster. Connectivity is key, progress will only come if both sectors invest strategically and jointly, integrating technology to ensure cohesive and sustainable development,” explains Verónica González, Director, North America Surface Transportation Mexico, CH Robinson.

Cross-Border Challenges: Workforce, Regulation, and Security

While the opportunities are significant, the sector must also grapple with major challenges, such as a shortage of operators, changing regulations, and a rise in cargo theft. In 2023, the sector had a deficit of 56,000 positions, which is projected to nearly double to 106,000 by 2028, according to the National Chamber of Cargo Transportation (CANACAR). This shortage poses significant risks to Mexico’s road freight transport market, which is expected to grow from US$43.13 billion in 2024 to US$59.02 billion by 2030 at a CAGR of 5.37%.

“Freight transport in Mexico faces highly complex conditions in three main areas: competitiveness, asset security, and road safety. Companies struggle to access the resources needed to remain competitive, while cargo theft, now at crisis levels, represents losses equivalent to nearly 2% of GDP. Road safety is another major concern, with Mexico ranking second globally in the growth of traffic accidents, despite international efforts to reduce them. However, these challenges also present opportunities. By leveraging innovation, particularly artificial intelligence, Mexico can strengthen competitiveness, enhance security, and turn these systemic weaknesses into long-term advantages,” shares Omar Camacho, General Manager Latin America, Motive.

Stakeholders also point to regulatory pressures affecting cross-border trucking. In the United States, intensified enforcement of English-language requirements has resulted in Mexico-domiciled drivers accounting for about half of all 27,971 US Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) violations recorded in 2025. Non-compliance can trigger Out-of-Service Orders that halt freight and disrupt delivery schedules.

Greg Arndt, Co-President, Jade Transport and Chair of the Canadian Trucking Alliance (CTA), calls for greater digitalization of cross-border documentation, proposing a regional single-window system and joint customs inspections to reduce administrative burdens and eliminate penalties for minor errors. 

Meanwhile, cargo theft is escalating in sophistication, with criminals using tactics such as fake checkpoints, armed convoys, and signal jammers. Federal initiatives including the “Zero Theft” plan have targeted high-risk corridors such as Mexico-Queretaro and Mexico-Puebla. However, stakeholders underscore the need for intelligent surveillance and secure transport zones, coordinated enforcement among federal and state authorities, and private sector co-investment in defensive technology, says Ramos.
“Mexico cannot rely on a single highway or one border crossing like Laredo for most of its trade. Diversifying routes and modernizing border infrastructure are essential for efficiency. Domestically, distribution models must evolve, moving beyond the concentration of warehouses in Mexico City and adopting more strategic, regionally balanced logistics networks adapted to Mexico’s realities, states Walter Campos, Executive Director General, GlobalTranz.

The future of intermodal logistics in Mexico will depend on the coordination of multiple factors: infrastructure expansion, regulatory alignment, digitalization of border processes, and operational modernization. As nearshoring accelerates, ensuring capacity for rail intermodal flows, port handling, and terminal operations is a pressing priority for both public authorities and private logistics providers.