The Year in Logistics: Disruptions, Tariffs, Investments

2025 was the year Mexico’s logistics system was stress-tested in public: disruption threats hit ports, highways and cross-border flows, while policy volatility out of Washington forced shippers to plan for sudden tariff and compliance shocks. At the same time, Mexico moved from crisis response to long-term capacity building, anchored by a US$16 billion port modernization blueprint, a renewed rail reform agenda, and new service launches designed to cut transit times and expand North American connectivity.

The Disruptions of 2025

The previous year opened with a global reminder that supply chains can still hinge on a single choke point. On Jan. 8, 2025, the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) and the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) reached a tentative six-year agreement, averting a strike that had been scheduled for Jan. 16 across US East and Gulf Coast ports. The deal set a framework for port modernization while protecting jobs and included a historic 62% wage increase over six years.  

By February, a mega-march in Mexico by carriers and merchants spilled onto major highways, framed around alleged extortion, abuse of authority, and demands for security and justice.

In May and June, the Port of Manzanillo, Mexico’s busiest Pacific gateway, became the year’s defining bottleneck. A customs disruption that began the week of May 12 triggered cascading backlogs and highlighted chronic congestion; INDEX Occidente warned that new customs appointments were still not being issued, amplifying risks across exporters, operators, and revenue collection.

September pushed pressure back to ports. Independent truck drivers blocked key access points to the Port of Lazaro Cardenas, denouncing wait times of up to 36 hours and the lack of basic services inside the port, another signal that “capacity” is not just cranes and yards, but throughput governance.

In October, safety regulation moved to the forefront after a deadly Sept. 10 LPG tanker explosion in Iztapalapa. In response, Mexico City rolled out a 13-point plan restricting hazardous cargo circulation, which included speed caps, capacity limits, route controls, enforcement technology, and a new operator licensing requirement (E12).

In late November, Mexico faced another major supply-chain shock when the National Association of Transporters (ANTAC) and the National Front for the Rescue of Mexican Farmland (FNRCM) carried out three days of nationwide highway blockades. The action was formally settled after both groups confirmed they had reached an agreement with the Ministry of the Interior (SEGOB), ending one of the largest coordinated transport-and-agriculture demonstrations of the year

On Dec. 17, Mexican farmer and freight groups launched protests to denounce road insecurity, a long-standing problem for the country. The protests were suspended a day later after the federal government announced agreements and committed to reinforced highway security, escorts, monitoring, and technology on high-risk corridors ahead of peak season.

Trump's Executive Orders and Tariffs

Mexico’s logistics environment was also heavily influenced by international policy. Early in the year, US President Donald Trump, sworn in on Jan. 20, framed his first-day agenda around tariffs, immigration enforcement, and border actions, moves that immediately raised the risk premium for North American supply chains.

Within the first hours of the new administration, the White House said Trump signed 42 executive directives, including a state of emergency at the US–Mexico border and measures tied to immigration enforcement that signaled tougher operating conditions at the border and more volatile trade flows. On the trade front, Trump’s “America First” posture centered on tariff leverage, publicly linking potential 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada to immigration and fentanyl-related pressure points, and reinforcing a willingness to use executive authority as a negotiating tool. For logistics operators, that translated into higher scenario-planning costs, contract uncertainty, and route-risk hedging across corridors.

Operationally, two executive-order-driven language enforcement pushes became especially relevant for cross-border freight. On April 28, Trump signed an order titled “Enforcing Commonsense Rules of the Road for America’s Truck Drivers,” mandating stricter enforcement of English proficiency rules for commercial drivers, with FMCSA directed to roll back Obama-era guidance and tighten out-of-service criteria.

By late December, the administration extended the same logic into rail, with USDOT/FRA tightening oversight of Mexican train crews operating inside the United States, imposing an immediate constraint that crews from Mexico may not operate more than 10mi into the United States from the point of entry.

Trump’s executive orders added a second layer of disruption risk in 2025: not a blanket “reciprocal” tariff hit on Mexico, but a targeted, fast-moving set of measures that forced shippers to plan around compliance and sudden cost shifts. The bigger exposure came through the so-called “fentanyl” tariffs, implemented on March 4, and adjusted on March 6: USMCA-duty-free entries stayed at 0%, but potash faced 10% tariffs and all other non-USMCA-covered products faced 25%, with a threatened increase to 30% flagged for July 12. By year’s end, Mexico also faced a separate “water” tariff threat of 5% (dated Dec. 9, 2025), reinforcing that border and trade rules had become an operational variable. However, Mexico was listed as exempt under the administration’s new reciprocal tariff framework, effective April 5.

Mexico’s Defensive Trade Shift

Late in 2025, Mexico’s logistics outlook was further shaped by a defensive turn in trade policy aimed at curbing China-linked inflows and de-risking the 2026 USMCA review. MBN reported that Chinese steel exports to Mexico rose 16.9% in November to 85,076t, a pre-tariff acceleration that underscored how quickly importers can pull forward volumes when new duties are expected.

Against that backdrop, Mexico moved to harden its tariff stance: a decree set tariffs of up to 50% on imports from non-FTA countries, targeting strategic categories including steel and vehicles (including EVs), a signal that Mexico was willing to absorb higher import costs to protect domestic industry and reduce trade friction with the United States. In parallel, the United States pushed to tighten rules of origin under USMCA for non-automotive manufactured goods, explicitly aiming to drive more North American sourcing and limit third-country content, raising the compliance and documentation burden across cross-border supply chains.

Port Investment

While disruptions hit Mexico’s logistics market, it also benefited from significant investment and policy reform. The year’s biggest infrastructure headline was the federal plan to modernize six strategic ports, Ensenada, Manzanillo-Cuyutlan, Lazaro Cardenas, Acapulco, Veracruz, and Progreso, backed by MX$55.2 billion (US$2.96 billion) in public funding plus MX$241 billion (US$12.94 billion) in private investment. 

Within that plan, Manzanillo’s expansion stood out for scale and ambition, including Puerto Nuevo dredging works tied to MX$18.7 billion in investment and a multi-terminal buildout designed to expand customs and road/rail access.

At the same time, the portfolio exposed how politically and socially “nonlinear” port execution can be: Ensenada’s El Sauzal debate prompted SEMAR to lean on public consultations and environmental impact studies as opposition mounted.

Rail: Reform, New Agencies, and Capacity Bets

Meanwhile, Mexico’s Senate advanced a reform package that, among other measures, created the Agency for Trains and Integrated Public Transport (ATTRAPI) under SICT and updated multiple laws to position passenger and freight rail as strategic priorities.

President Claudia Sheinbaum green-lighted the Mayan Train’s freight phase, explicitly linking it to Puerto Progreso’s expansion and a Palenque connection point with the Interoceanic corridor, an attempt to knit southeast logistics into national networks.  

On the private-sector capacity front, GMXT announced MX$7.2 billion (US$383.5 million) to add 120 locomotives as part of a broader 2025 capex plan, while positioning rail as a bigger share of freight across 24 states and six US border crossings.

Commercially, Schneider’s shift to the CPKC network became a benchmark “service story,” cutting Mexico-to-Chicago transit time from seven days to four and leaning heavily on the Laredo bridge crossing narrative.

Customs Reform

The Customs Law reform, published in November 2025 and taking effect Jan. 1, 2026, aims to tighten control, digitize compliance, and raise the operational burden across import/export processes, directly impacting brokers, IMMEX operators, couriers, and bonded/strategic facilities

The most relevant changes include: a new Customs Council empowered to grant, renew, suspend, and cancel key authorizations, including broker-related licenses; tighter broker accountability, including expanded liability and suspension triggers; expanded requirements around electronic customs files and value documentation; tougher traceability and evidence obligations for IMMEX and Strategic Bonded Facility (RFE) operations, including proof of industrial processes; and materially higher penalties, with some fines increasing to 70%–250% of goods value for certain violations. 

Border Bridges

While tariffs and enforcement rules raised uncertainty at the border, 2025 also delivered concrete capacity signals in the most critical freight gateway: Laredo–Nuevo Laredo. In February, CPKC opened the Patrick J. Ottensmeyer International Railway Bridge, a US$100 million project designed to double rail capacity across the Rio Grande and strengthen security and fluidity for North American trade flows

Momentum carried into the World Trade Bridge agenda: Mexican and US federal and state officials, diplomats, and private-sector representatives aligned next steps to expand the World Trade Bridge in Nuevo Laredo, with state communications highlighting eight new toll booths, eight additional northbound lanes, and multi-energy inspection portals to reduce congestion and speed processing.

Ocean Shipping: Faster Asia-Mexico Lanes and Global Coordination

OOCL launched its TLP8 service to strengthen express Asia-Mexico connectivity, advertising direct sailings from Qingdao to Ensenada in 16 days and to Manzanillo in 20 days (with the service commencing from Shanghai on Aug. 20, 2025).

At the governance level, Mexico was reelected to the IMO Council (Category “C”) for the 2026–2027 term, underscoring the country’s role in shaping maritime rules as decarbonization, safety and enforcement pressures rise.

Manzanillo saw private capacity added to relieve day-to-day friction. In December, Maersk opened a logistics depot about 5km from the Port of Manzanillo, which was backed by over US$15 million. Designed to cut first- and last-mile bottlenecks and speed inland flows, the site adds 31,000m² of logistics footprint and 6,018 TEUs of storage capacity, plus services such as reefer support, repairs, shunting, and transloading.

Veracruz also advanced as a Gulf capacity bet. In April, Grupo CICE inaugurated the first phase of its Semi-specialized Container and Cargo Terminal in the North Bay of the Port of Veracruz, backed by a reported MX$7 billion (US$410 million) investment and positioned by state officials as a job-creating, trade-boosting project. By December, the company launched the second phase of operations, adding an 8,000m² CFS warehouse, a refrigerated area with 350 reefer connections, and 570 additional positions for containers and project cargo, alongside plans to incorporate rail-mounted multipurpose cranes to improve vessel handling and expand multimodal integration across maritime, rail, road, and warehousing.