Claudia Sheinbaum Becomes Mexico's First Female President

MORENA candidate Claudia Sheinbaum has become Mexico's first female president, securing approximately 60% of the vote according to INE’s preliminary results. Experts anticipate that Sheinbaum's administration will be more orderly than that of President López Obrador, offering greater legal certainty and being more open to investment. However, challenges persist in issues such as violence, PEMEX, debt, environmental problems, water and energy shortages, among others.

INE announced that Sheinbaum secured between 58.6% and 60.7% of the votes, making her the most-voted candidate in Mexico's recent history. Xóchitl Gálvez, from Fuerza y Corazón por México, came in second with 26.6% to 28.6% of the votes, and Jorge Álvarez Máynez from Movimiento Ciudadano placed third with 9.9% to 10.8% of the votes. In her victory speech, Sheinbaum thanked Gálvez and Máynez for recognizing her victory in the 2024 elections, as well as for their participation in the elections.

"I am grateful because for the first time in 200 years of the Republic, I will become the first woman president of Mexico. As I have said before, I do not arrive alone; we all arrive together with our heroines who gave us a homeland, our ancestors, mothers, daughters, and granddaughters. I congratulate all Mexicans who, through their participation today, demonstrated that Mexico is a democratic country with peaceful and highly participative elections," said Sheinbaum during her victory speech.

INE's preliminary results show that MORENA and its allies, Partido Verde and PT, will hold between 346 and 380 of the 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and between 76 and 88 of the 128 seats in the Senate. Experts suggest that MORENA and its allies will reach a qualified majority, which is two thirds of the seats, allowing them to pass reforms easily in Congress.

Although Sheinbaum has promised continuity with López Obrador's policies, experts predict that her administration will be a bit different. "A more orderly presidency, with more planning and a more technical profile among the officials in her cabinet. Sheinbaum is expected to have a better global understanding, unlike López Obrador, whose vision was very local," said Carlos Ramirez, Consultant, Integralia, to Al Jazeera.

Stephanie Brewer, Director for Mexico, WOLA, noted that Sheinbaum will chart her own path as she values data-driven decision-making, which differs from the current administration. "With a background in environmental science and engineering, she has spoken about the need for Mexico to lead in multilateral spaces on the climate emergency. Despite endorsing militarization, she took significant action on civilian policing as Mexico City's mayor. There are reasons to expect some differences, but the outcome remains uncertain."

Regarding private companies, Sheinbaum has emphasized support for state-owned companies like CFE and PEMEX but has also expressed a willingness to collaborate with the private sector to boost the economy and capitalize on opportunities such as nearshoring. She established "Diálogos para la Transformación," a non-partisan team of 12 specialists across crucial areas to facilitate dialogue with various sectors and industries. "Sheinbaum's economic development program was essentially crafted by the country's business chambers. We consulted 122 chambers to address their issues and proposals. We asked them 'What hurts you? What did we do well, what did we not do well?," said Altagracia Gómez Sierra, Coordinator, Diálogos para la Transformación.

While the outlook appears more promising, experts highlight six major challenges for Sheinbaum's administration. First, violence remains a significant issue. The government claims to have reduced high homicide levels by 20%, yet it has presided over one of the most violent periods in Mexico's history. Second, cartels have expanded, now engaging in extortion and migrant smuggling in addition to drug trafficking. Third, PEMEX faces high debt and numerous unfinished and over-budget oil infrastructure projects. Fourth, the new administration must contend with a budget deficit equivalent to 5.9% of GDP, alongside the ongoing costs of construction and benefit programs. Fifth, water and energy shortages have worsened due to persistent droughts and heatwaves. Sixth, environmental issues, such as droughts, wildfires, and high temperatures, have resulted in the death of animals and people.

Yesterday's election was the largest in Mexico's history, with 20,079 positions being contested. The recent elections had nearly 98.3 million citizens participating, which is nine million more than in the previous elections. However, the voter turnout percentage was lower than in 2018, falling between 60% and 61.5%, reported El País.