SAF Could Cut Airline Emissions 60% in LatAm by 2050

If Latin American airlines adopt sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), emissions could fall by up to 60% compared to business-as-usual projections, according to a study by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The study–funded by LATAM Airlines Group and Airbus—was unveiled at F-Air Colombia 2025 and examines feedstock availability, production costs, emissions impacts, and policy frameworks. 

The report highlights SAF as a cornerstone for aviation decarbonization. It estimates that a 60% emissions reduction could be achieved if SAF makes up 65% of aviation fuel by 2050, alongside efficiency gains and supportive policies. However, SAF production costs–based on local feedstocks–are significantly higher than conventional jet fuel. While jet fuel in Latin America currently averages US$0.70 per liter, SAF ranges from US$1.11 to US$2.86. This cost disparity could significantly impact ticket prices, demand, and airline profitability, as fuel represents over 40% of operational costs.

To address this, the study outlines strategies to lower SAF costs and encourage its adoption. It proposes enhanced regional economic integration, allowing countries with low-cost SAF production—such as Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru—to supply nations with limited feedstocks, like Chile and Mexico. Such cooperation could reduce demand disruption by up to 40%. However, the expansion needed to meet projected demand—air travel in Latin America is expected to triple by 2050—would require US$204 billion in capital investment for SAF production facilities.

For lower-capacity countries, the report recommends accelerating the deployment of feedstocks such as sugarcane- and corn-based ethanol, and hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids from palm or soybean oil. The widespread availability of these resources positions Latin America to become a global leader in SAF production and adoption.

Even with these cost-reducing measures, MIT researchers emphasize the need for robust government support. Policies such as feedstock certification, carbon pricing, SAF blending mandates, and incentives–similar to the US 45Z Federal Tax Credit, which offers US$0.75 to US$1.75 per gallon of clean fuel–will be essential. Report co-author Sergey Paltsev notes that while SAF is a promising decarbonization pathway, it must be combined with “an economy-wide emissions mitigation policy that uses market-based mechanisms to offset the remaining emissions.”

Juan José Tohá, Director of Corporate Affairs and Sustainability, LATAM Airlines Group, stressed that achieving net-zero emissions in the region will be impossible without SAF and the necessary production capacity. “It is critical to chart an appropriate path to reduce the risk of rising costs and compromising the development of our regional connectivity,” Tohá said. “Regional integration, in this context, is a key alternative to reduce cost overruns and ensure the transition toward more sustainable aviation.”