Mexico to Begin 2026 Minimum Wage Negotiations on Nov. 27

Mexico will open negotiations to define the 2026 minimum wage on Nov. 27, when the National Minimum Wage Commission (CONASAMI) convenes its Council of Representatives to review proposals from employers, unions, and the federal government. The discussion comes as the country reports record foreign investment and businesses prepare for moderate salary adjustments amid a mixed economic outlook.

The negotiation round will start once CONASAMI presents its annual technical report on national economic conditions, expected before the end of November. “With this, the process to set the minimum wages that will be in force as of Jan. 1, 2026, will begin,” the commission said in a recent statement. 

President Claudia Sheinbaum says that the policy seeks to increase wages without causing distortions. “It will be done by consensus, and we always aim for it to be as high as possible because Mexico has benefited greatly from raising the minimum wage,” she states, according to El Economista. 

The discussion follows seven years of real wage recovery and arrives as the administration continues to frame wage policy as a lever to strengthen domestic consumption. Sheinbaum states that although the wage has reached levels not seen in decades, many families rely on a single income and still face challenges in covering basic needs. Her long-term target is for the minimum wage to reach 2.5 times the basic basket by 2030. By law, the annual adjustment must exceed inflation, which stood at 3.57% in October.

The Council of Representatives will review proposals, which are expected to differ by region. Sources close to the process anticipate a double-digit increase for the general minimum wage and a smaller, single-digit adjustment for the northern border zone. The general wage currently stands at MX$278.80 (US$15.17) per day, or MX$8,475 (US$461.32) per month, while the border zone wage is MX$419.88 (US$22.85) per day, or MX$12,764 (US$694.56) per month.

Preliminary projections point to a 12% increase for the general rate and around 6% for the border rate, according to sources and recent economic analyses. As cited by El Economista, Banamex estimates a similar path, projecting an 11% adjustment for 2026 following the 12% increase approved for 2025. Under that estimate, the general wage would reach MX$309.50 (US$16.84) per day. The bank says that the moderation aligns with the administration’s signals of keeping the trajectory similar to last year’s.

Unions and civil society groups are proposing higher adjustments. The National Workers’ Union (UNT) is calling for a 20% direct increase, while Acción Ciudadana Frente a la Pobreza (ACFP) is suggesting a 16% raise for the general wage and 4% for the border rate. The organization argues that differentiated adjustments allow the country to avoid employment risks and reflect the fact that the northern border has already surpassed the 2.5-basket income threshold by more than MX$1,100 (US$59.85).

The upcoming negotiation takes place in a broader economic environment marked by cautious business sentiment. According to Michael Page’s Salary Guide 2026, only 62% of companies in Mexico plan to increase salaries next year, and most expect to raise them by only 1% to 5%. Oliver Odreman, Senior Director, Michael Page, described this as “a very moderate expectation,” reflecting an outlook shaped more by inflation stabilization than by confidence in stronger economic growth.

Inflation is expected to close at 3.82% in 2025 and 3.92% in 2026, according to Citi’s latest survey. AON’s separate analysis projects raises of 5.4% for non-unionized workers and 6.4% for unionized employees, though regional variations remain. Employers cite uncertainty linked to global trade conditions, new US tariffs under the Trump administration, supply chain adjustments, and pending domestic labor reforms, such as the possible reduction of the workweek from 48 to 40 hours.

In the labor market, limited salary growth is affecting retention strategies. Michael Page reports that 95% of employees value workplace flexibility, yet only 9% of companies offer structured programs. However, compensation strategies are evolving. “Salary alone has ceased to be a differentiating factor. Today, talent expects a more complete value proposition,” says Javier Torre, Director General for Mexico and Central America, Michael Page. Companies are expanding differentiated benefits, though gaps remain between employee expectations and what employers provide.

The negotiation for the 2026 minimum wage will take place amid competing pressures: government goals for continued wage recovery, employers’ concerns over economic uncertainty, record foreign investment, and shifting employee priorities. The Council’s decision, expected in early December, will shape wage policy for the coming year and influence how companies adjust compensation in a changing labor market.