2026 Pivotal Year for Investment in Mexico: COPARMEX

The Mexican Employers’ Confederation (COPARMEX), said 2026 will be a decisive year for determining whether Mexico can consolidate an attractive environment for productive investment or remain stuck in a period of weak economic momentum.

In an economic analysis released this week, the business group said policy decisions taken throughout the year will shape investor confidence, economic growth and social well-being. COPARMEX stressed that sustainable growth requires clear rules, strong institutions, effective security and a firm commitment to formality and productivity.

International organizations forecast moderate economic growth for Mexico in 2026. The IMF and the OECD project GDP growth of between 1.2% and 1.5%, broadly in line with the central bank’s estimate of 1.1%. By contrast, the federal government projects stronger growth ranging from 1.8% to 2.8%.

According to Banxico’s survey of expectations, inflation is projected at 3.8% next year, with economic growth of 1.3% and an exchange rate between MX$19.6 and MX$19.8. COPARMEX said the outlook points to relative macroeconomic stability but warned that the pace of growth remains insufficient to trigger stronger investment, expand formal employment and improve social welfare.

On the social front, the business group noted that despite increases in the minimum wage and some gains in household income, a significant share of the population continues to live in poverty and labor poverty, particularly within the informal economy. This limits the social impact of economic growth and perpetuates structural inequalities.

COPARMEX also flagged shortcomings in the proposed 2026 Economic Package, citing insufficient social investment in health and education, areas it considers critical for strengthening human capital, social mobility, and equal opportunity. ç

Labor Market

The labor market outlook for 2026 includes slower growth in the labor force and a low labor participation rate of 59.5%, according to the National Survey of Occupation and Employment. COPARMEX highlighted a nearly 30-percentage-point gap between male and female participation, as well as an informality rate exceeding 55%.

Without a comprehensive strategy to promote formalization, skills development, and decent work, such as those proposed by the International Labour Organization, COPARMEX said informality could remain between 54% and 56%. The group argued that formal employment is the most effective social policy tool and that boosting productivity and supporting MSMEs is essential for generating sustainable incomes.

USMCA Review

The USMCA review in 2026 will be another key factor shaping the economic outlook. COPARMEX said the trade pact remains Mexico’s main economic anchor but warned that potential changes to rules of origin  and labor provisions will require close coordination between the public and private sectors.

Nearshoring also represents a major opportunity to attract investment and diversify Mexico’s productive base, the group said, though it emphasized that success will depend on improvements in infrastructure, security and regulatory certainty.

Looking ahead, COPARMEX identified risks tied to low growth, institutional weakening, and fiscal pressures, alongside opportunities linked to regional integration and the relocation of global supply chains. To capitalize on those opportunities, the organization outlined a six-point agenda focused on the rule of law, security, competitive energy supply, responsible public finances, strengthening MSMEs, and greater regional competitiveness and integration.