China’s Export Boom in March Highlights Pressure From US Tariffs

China’s exports surged in March as manufacturers accelerated shipments ahead of the implementation of new US tariffs. However, the escalating trade tensions between China and the United States have clouded the outlook for Chinese manufacturing and the broader economy.

US President Donald Trump increased tariffs on Chinese goods, a move that many economists warn could disrupt global trade and reduce business investment. Chinese exports rose by 12.4% compared to the same month last year, marking the strongest growth in five months and well above the 4.4% increase expected in a Reuters poll. In contrast, exports had grown just 2.3% during the January–February period.

Meanwhile, imports dropped by 4.3%, exceeding analysts' forecasts of a 2.0% decline and adding to the sharper-than-expected 8.4% contraction seen earlier this year.

Trade-related uncertainty has rattled financial markets in recent weeks, particularly after Trump introduced broad tariffs on several countries on April 2. Although some tariffs were later suspended for select economies, the United States imposed even stricter duties on China—measures Beijing dismissed as “a joke.”

Starting Feb. 4, the US applied a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, followed by an additional 10% in March, citing Beijing’s lack of action to curb fentanyl shipments to the United States. This latest round of tariffs raised total duties on Chinese goods to 145%, triggering retaliatory measures from Beijing, which raised tariffs on US products by 125%. The dispute continues to escalate between the two global economic powers.

Xu Tianchen, Chief Economist, Economist Intelligence Unit, noted that “the front-loading of exports was stronger than anticipated.” According to Xu, the figures suggest that Chinese firms may still be able to absorb the 20% fentanyl-related tariffs. He also pointed out indications of rerouted exports through Southeast Asia to potentially avoid the higher US duties.