COPARMEX Flags Weak Growth Risks Despite Macro Stability

Mexican companies are maintaining a cautious approach to new investment, with confidence levels comparable to those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the latest DataCoparmex 2025 survey released by the Mexican Employers’ Confederation (COPARMEX).

The survey’s “Willingness to Invest” indicator shows that only 39.5% of companies believe current conditions are favorable for investment. The figure underscores a climate of selective and measured decision-making across the private sector and remains well below the more than 50% average recorded between 2021 and 2023, when business confidence rebounded more strongly following the pandemic.

The nationwide survey was conducted between August and October 2025 and included responses from 3,850 companies across 71 business centers in Mexico’s 32 states, offering a broad snapshot of private-sector sentiment.

Against this backdrop, COPARMEX leaders say the data point to a period of heightened evaluation rather than a retreat from growth. Ángel García, COPARMEX’s National Vice President for Economic Development, said the results reflect the cautious stance companies are taking as they assess economic and regulatory conditions. “Only 39.5% believe this is a good time to invest, a level similar to what we observed during the pandemic,” García said.

Still, the survey revealed signs of resilience within the productive sector. Nearly 62.8% of companies said they plan to expand their operations, signaling continued intentions to grow, consolidate or strengthen their market presence despite prevailing uncertainty.

In parallel, the survey pointed to gradual progress in the regulatory environment. The Regulatory Spending indicator improved to 48.9%, suggesting modest advances in administrative simplification when government institutions coordinate effectively.

COPARMEX said regulatory efficiency remains a key determinant of investment decisions, as it directly influences project timelines, operating costs and legal certainty. From the employers’ association’s perspective, the DataCoparmex 2025 results depict a business environment marked by deliberate investment choices but supported by a productive base that continues to pursue expansion.

Looking more broadly at the investment climate, COPARMEX President Juan José Sierra said the survey’s indicators reflect real-world decisions by companies that generate employment and continually reassess where and how to invest. Findings suggest that investment sentiment in Mexico is entering a phase of strategic adjustment, with companies prioritizing certainty, operational efficiency and stable conditions to sustain medium-term growth plans.

This reassessment comes as Mexico’s business sector closely watches regional trade dynamics. As the United States seeks to reduce its dependence on China, Mexican business leaders have emphasized the need to strengthen the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, to ensure legal certainty, energy stability and investment opportunities across North America, reported MBN. 

“Mexico is not the problem. Mexico is the solution,” Sierra said, noting that the country’s skilled labor force and industrial capacity position it as a key partner in regional supply chains.

Business Leaders Push for Stronger Regional Integration

Industry representatives across sectors echoed calls to reinforce the trade agreement ahead of its scheduled 2026 review. José Carlos Pons, President, National Association of the Chemical Industry, said USMCA has been central to regional industrial development, tripling chemical trade to more than US$60 billion. He noted that roughly 95% of chemical products serve as essential inputs for industries such as automotive, electronics, appliances and pharmaceuticals.

“In a period of high geopolitical uncertainty, reviewing USMCA is a unique opportunity to strengthen regional integration, modernize regulatory frameworks and provide long-term investment certainty,” Pons said.

Octavio de la Torre, President, Concanaco Servytur, stressed that unity within the business community and coordination with the Mexican government will be critical to defending national interests. He said economic integration shows that the United States and Mexico depend on each other through shared supply chains, cross-border trade and industrial integration.

Separately, COPARMEX has warned that 2026 will be a decisive year in determining whether Mexico can consolidate an attractive environment for productive investment or remain stuck in a period of weak economic momentum, reported MBN. 

In a recent economic analysis, the business group said policy decisions made throughout the year will shape investor confidence, economic growth and social well-being. COPARMEX emphasized that sustainable growth depends on clear rules, strong institutions, effective security and a firm commitment to productivity and formal employment.

International organizations forecast moderate growth for Mexico in 2026. The International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development project GDP growth of between 1.2% and 1.5%, broadly in line with Mexico’s central bank estimate of 1.1%. The federal government, however, projects stronger growth of between 1.8% and 2.8%.

According to Banxico’s survey of expectations, inflation is projected at 3.8% in 2026, with economic growth of 1.3% and an exchange rate between 19.6 and 19.8 pesos per dollar.

COPARMEX said the outlook points to relative macroeconomic stability but warned that growth remains insufficient to trigger stronger investment, expand formal employment and significantly improve social welfare.

Despite increases in the minimum wage and some gains in household income, the group said a large share of the population continues to live in poverty or labor poverty, particularly within the informal economy. This, it said, limits the social impact of economic growth and perpetuates structural inequality.

USMCA Review

The labor market outlook for 2026 includes slower growth in the labor force and a participation rate of 59.5%, according to Mexico’s National Survey of Occupation and Employment. COPARMEX highlighted a nearly 30-percentage-point gap between male and female participation and an informality rate exceeding 55%.

Without a comprehensive strategy to promote formalization, skills development and decent work, informality could remain between 54% and 56%, the group said, arguing that formal employment remains the most effective social policy tool.

At the same time, the USMCA review scheduled for 2026 will be another critical factor shaping Mexico’s economic outlook. COPARMEX said the trade pact remains the country’s main economic anchor but warned that potential changes to rules of origin and labor provisions will require close coordination between the public and private sectors.

Nearshoring also presents a significant opportunity to attract investment and diversify Mexico’s productive base, though the group said success will depend on improvements in infrastructure, security and regulatory certainty.

Looking ahead, COPARMEX identified risks linked to low growth, institutional weakening and fiscal pressures, alongside opportunities tied to regional integration and the relocation of global supply chains. To capitalize on those opportunities, the organization outlined a six-point agenda focused on strengthening the rule of law, security, competitive energy supply, responsible public finances, support for MSMEs and greater regional competitiveness.