Mexican Exports Expected to Rise Despite Trump’s Tariff Threats

Experts anticipate that US imports from Mexico will continue to rise in the final months of the year and into January 2025, driven by Donald Trump’s return to power and his threat of implementing aggressive tariffs on Mexico.

Imports from Mexico to the United States have shown consistent growth, except for July. In October, the US Department of Commerce indicated imports from Mexico totaled US$45.492 billion. During the same period, the overall US trade deficit decreased by 11.9% compared to September. Meanwhile, the trade deficit with Mexico saw a significant increase, reaching US$16.377 billion, which is the highest level ever recorded for a single month.

Furthermore, the Global Port Tracker report forecasts that in the 16 major US container ports it tracks, November volumes will reach a record 2.17 million TEUs, reflecting a 4.4% increase from the same month last year. “Considering the potential for a strike at East Coast and Gulf Coast container ports, along with President-elect Trump’s planned tariff increases, major US container ports are expected to see continued growth in imports through the spring,” predicts the NRF.

Carlos Ramírez, Managing Partner, Integralia Consultores, explained that it is understandable for companies to preemptively advance their orders in anticipation of possible new tariffs. However, he notes that this could lead to higher inventory maintenance costs, transfer pricing concerns, direct cost implications, constraints on perishable goods, and potential impacts on cash flow. “Currently, the data is influenced by what we refer to as the ‘Trump risk.’ While Mexican exports may see an initial increase, this could be followed by a downturn if the tariffs are enacted,” Ramírez adds.

Donald Trump’s Tariffs

Trump’s proposed tariffs include a universal rate of up to 20% on imports, a targeted 60% tariff on Chinese goods, and a potential 25% tariff on Mexican goods tied to immigration and drug concerns. Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard stated that if Donald Trump were to increase tariffs across various sectors, Mexico would respond proportionally. “If a 25% tariff is imposed on us, we will be forced to counter with reciprocal tariffs. As one of the United States’ main trading partners, alongside Canada, any tariff hikes will result in corresponding actions from our side,” Ebrard stated.