Mexico Reports a 9.6% Trade Surplus in March Amid Global Strains

In March 2025, Mexico saw a trade surplus of US$3.44 billion, an increase compared to the US$2.21 billion surplus recorded in February. This growth came despite the global uncertainty caused by the US tariffs and was driven by a rise in the surplus of non-oil goods — from US$3.39 billion in February to US$4.25 billion in March — and a reduction in the oil goods deficit, which decreased from US$1.18 billion to US$803 million over the same period.

For 1Q25, the trade balance saw a surplus of US$1.1 billion, a significant turnaround from the US$2.71 billion deficit recorded in the same period of 2024. In March, the value of exports totaled US$55.53 billion, marking a 9.6% year-over-year increase. This growth resulted from a 9.7% rise in non-oil exports and a 7.1% increase in oil exports. Within non-oil exports, shipments to the United States grew by 9.0%, while exports to the rest of the world rose by 13.7%.

Manufactured goods exports amounted to US$49.99 billion in March, reflecting an annual growth rate of 10.0%. Key drivers included significant increases in the exports of special machinery and equipment for various industries (50.2%), minerometallurgical products (31.9%), household metal products (11.2%), professional and scientific equipment (11.0%), and automotive products (6.2%). Automotive exports grew by 6.5% to the United States and by 4.0% to other markets.

Oil exports reached US$2.17 billion in March, composed of US$1.65 billion from crude oil sales and US$519 million from other petroleum products. The average price of the Mexican crude oil export mix was US$65.79/b, down US$3.20 compared to the previous month and US$8.22 compared to March 2024. The volume of crude oil exports stood at 811,000b/d, higher than both February’s 752,000b/d and March 2024’s 705,000b/d.

Agricultural and fishing exports totaled US$2.30 billion, representing a 2.8% annual decline. Major decreases were observed in fresh strawberries (−37.4%), onions and garlic (−34.2%), cucumbers (−30.9%), fresh vegetables (−27.2%), and tomatoes (−23.8%). In contrast, notable increases were recorded for avocado (28.4%) and melons, watermelons, and papayas (31.9%). Mining exports reached US$1.06 billion, up 34.1% year-over-year.

In 1Q25, total exports amounted to US$149.25 billion, reflecting a 4.0% annual growth. This figure was driven by a 5.4% increase in non-oil exports and a 21.9% drop in oil exports. The composition of merchandise exports was as follows: manufactured goods (89.8%), oil products (3.9%), agricultural goods (4.4%), and non-oil mining products (1.9%).

In March 2025, the value of merchandise imports totaled US$52.09 billion, an annual increase of 7.1%.

Consumer goods imports reached US$7.05 billion, a 1.2% annual decrease. This outcome reflected a 5.6% increase in non-oil consumer goods imports and a 43.7% drop in oil consumer goods imports (such as gasoline and butane/propane gas).

Intermediate goods imports, crucial for industrial production, totaled US$40.39 billion, up 9.7% year-over-year. This growth included a 9.7% rise in non-oil intermediate goods imports and a 10.3% increase in oil-related intermediate goods imports. Capital goods imports amounted to US$4.65 billion, representing a 1.3% annual decline.

During the January-March 2025 period, total imports stood at US$148.16 billion, up 1.3% compared to the same period in 2024. Non-oil imports rose by 1.5% annually, while oil imports decreased by 1.3%. The structure of imports was: intermediate goods (77.2%), consumer goods (13.6%), and capital goods (9.2%).