USMCA Review Positions Development Poles as Investment Engine

Mexico’s upcoming USMCA review in 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal moment for the country’s economic strategy, with the federal government positioning its Development Poles for Well-Being as a central tool to attract investment, reduce uncertainty, and strengthen domestic production amid a favorable geopolitical environment. Minister of Economy Marcelo Ebrard said the review of the trade pact will help eliminate lingering uncertainty and reinforce Mexico’s role in the regional supply chain.

“We are going to close the sale of uncertainty,” Ebrard said, referring to the review process and the role the development poles are expected to play in a new commercial order that he described as driven by geopolitical considerations. He said the trilateral agreement “will survive,” adding that the period of greatest uncertainty has already passed.

Speaking at the First National Meeting of Development Poles for Well-Being, Ebrard said the formal review of the treaty will begin in January 2026 and expressed confidence that it will be completed by July 1. From July 2 onward, he said, many domestic and foreign companies are expected to decide whether to invest in Mexico, a moment when the development poles will become especially relevant as platforms for productive capital.

Of the 15 development poles planned nationwide, six are already under construction, while the remainder are expected to begin in the second quarter of 2026. The largest investments are concentrated in the automotive sector, particularly in the states of Durango, Tlaxcala, Puebla and Michoacan.

Logistics-related projects are advancing in Celaya through the Bajio Logistics Gateway; in Tlaxcala with distribution and commercialization centers; in Hidalgo with logistics and services hubs; and in Michoacan, where Canadian Pacific Kansas City is investing in a rail integration system.

Ebrard said Mexico’s strong trade relationship with the United States is a decisive factor behind the expected continuity of the agreement. “It is evident that the treaty will survive, because we are the main buyer of the United States. No one buys more from the United States than Mexico,” he said.

While acknowledging that 2026 will be a challenging year for Mexico’s economy due to the USMCA review, Ebrard said it could also provide the necessary momentum to accelerate the Development Poles under the government’s Plan México. He stressed the importance of swift government action once the review concludes, warning that delays could cause Mexico to miss investment opportunities.

“If you wait too long, the train moves on,” he said. “Our aim is to avoid losing time by resolving treaty-related uncertainty as quickly as possible, while simultaneously speeding up our ability to produce more domestically.”

Ebrard said Mexico is expected to remain the United States’ top trading partner once the review is completed, a position that enhances the country’s appeal for foreign investment and strengthens the private sector’s role in global trade. He added that President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration has already completed the necessary analysis to engage investors once negotiations conclude, with the aim of advancing Plan México and consolidating the development poles.

Still, Ebrard cautioned that the development poles are a long-term project whose results will not be immediate. “You cannot build development poles and succeed in one year. China took more than 20 years,” he said. “I’m not saying it will take us 20, but many of these initiatives take time … their full effects will be seen over the next decade.”

He concluded that Mexico is now in a more favorable trade position than anticipated at the beginning of the year, creating an opportunity that should not be wasted as the USMCA review approaches and the Development Poles continue to take shape.