US Ban Confines AIFA to Regional Operations, Stalls Growth Plan

The US Department of Transportation’s (DoT) decision to revoke approval for 11 commercial routes between Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) and multiple US destinations has halted the airport’s international growth plans, according to aviation analyst Fabricio Cojuc. The ruling restricts the airport to domestic operations and a few international routes across Latin America and the Caribbean.

AIFA had planned to double its international destinations by the end of 2025, increasing from eight to 16 routes. The new flights were to connect to major US hubs, including Los Angeles, New York, Chicago, Dallas, Houston, Denver, Miami and Orlando, all to be operated by Viva Aerobus. With the DoT’s revocation, those plans have been suspended.

“The DoT’s mandate to immediately ban AIFA-US commercial flights abruptly put a damper on the airport’s aspirations to become a more relevant international gateway. Service was set to double from seven existing to 15 foreign cities just in time for the peak year-end holiday period,” explained Cojuc in a LinkedIn post.

AIFA’s international operations are limited to Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Colombia and Venezuela, with service provided by four airlines, three of which are low-cost carriers. Cojuc pointed out that “only one single destination, Caracas, is not served out of Mexico City International Airport (AICM). These routes average 3.2 daily departures in current fourth-quarter published schedules, compared to 148.6 in AICM,” citing data from Cirium.

According to Cojuc, Viva Aerobus has turned AIFA into a secondary hub comparable in size to its Mexico City operations. However, the outlook for future international expansion remains uncertain. “The range of viable international city additions seems quite limited, as are the prospects of recruiting new relevant foreign carriers. This is especially true after Copa Airlines’ withdrawal earlier this year and the reputational damage caused by the ban,” he noted.

The impact of the DoT decision extends beyond passenger flights. AIFA is expected to rely heavily on cargo operations, which already represent around half of Mexico’s total international air freight volume. “It is a foregone conclusion that AIFA’s role will continue to be that of a mostly domestic, low-cost,  carrier-dominated airport. The current 94% domestic to 6% international traffic mix will soon change to approximately 97% to 3%. As Mexicana’s fleet grows in the coming months, domestic demand will likely become even more dominant,” said Cojuc.

Cojuc also suggested that the Toluca International Airport (TLC) could benefit from the current situation. The airport may see increased charter activity linked to the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which Mexico will co-host with the United States and Canada. “Toluca may be in a position to benefit greatly from a boost in the commercial charter flight activity associated with the World Cup,” Cojuc explained.