Mexico Bets on Port, Air Expansion Amid Bottlenecks

Mexico is in the middle of a logistics transformation, with air and sea port development taking center stage under the federal government’s Plan México. This national initiative seeks to modernize infrastructure, support manufacturing growth, and improve supply chain continuity. However, despite the ambitious investments and new projects, the country continues to face significant challenges, including port saturation, uneven infrastructure development, and the need for true multimodal integration.

Maritime Transport Dominates, But Bottlenecks Persist

Maritime transport remains the backbone of Mexico’s cargo movement. CANACAR reports that in 2023, 29.63% of domestic cargo moved by sea, while air cargo represented just 0.12%. This shows the heavy reliance on ports for industrial and trade activity.

Mexico’s ports closed 2024 with a record 9.38 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) handled, a 12% increase compared to 2023, according to the General Coordination of Ports and Merchant Marine (CGPMM) of SEMAR.

Of the total, 99.02% (9.28 million TEU) corresponded to international traffic (exports and imports), equivalent to 59.1 million tons of containerized cargo, a 10.8% year-on-year increase. The main ports (Manzanillo, Lazaro Cardenas, Altamira, and Veracruz) handled 91.2% of all international container traffic, reflecting high dependence on a few logistical nodes and the growing threat of saturation.

Yet, the existing infrastructure has not kept pace with growing demand. Ports like Manzanillo are approaching saturation, and temporary disruptions, like the May incident in Manzanillo, demonstrate how local bottlenecks can ripple across national and international supply chains. Although maritime expansion is underway, much remains to be done to balance capacity among Mexico’s key ports.

Global Trade Volatility and Local Impact

In 2025, tariffs and shifting trade policies are reshaping global trade dynamics, creating mixed outcomes for trade volumes, values, and port performance. Fitch Ratings downgraded its mid‑year outlook for North American and EMEA ports to deteriorating, citing tariff uncertainty and sluggish economic activity. 

While Latin American and APAC ports remain more resilient due to trade diversification and long-term take-or-pay contracts, Mexican ports face dual pressures: global volatility and local bottlenecks. From January to May 2025, domestic cargo volumes fell 10.8% year-on-year, according to CGPMM, reflecting national vulnerabilities. The disruptions at the Port of Manzanillo in May further demonstrated how local congestion can ripple across national and international supply chains.

Plan México: Ambitious but Complex

Launched in January 2025 by President Claudia Sheinbaum, Plan México is a national strategy to reduce import dependency, particularly the US$210 billion in Asian imports, and to strengthen domestic manufacturing. It also aims to accelerate investment timelines, create 1.5 million jobs in strategic sectors, and increase local content in industries such as automotive, aerospace, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals.

While the plan includes 12 CIIT welfare poles (PODEBIS), two Yucatan poles, and five confined polygons to drive industrialization, its success depends heavily on modernizing logistics corridors. The government seeks to reduce the average investment execution period from 2.6 years to just 1 year, but procedural and regional disparities remain major hurdles.

National Port Modernization: Expanding Capacity Amid Saturation

Mexico’s national port modernization plan focuses on six priority ports: Ensenada, Manzanillo-Cuyutlan, Lazaro Cardenas, Acapulco, Veracruz, and Progreso, with MX$55.2 billion (US$2.96 billion) in public and MX$241 billion (US$12.94 billion) in private investment.

• Ensenada is seeing cross-border and tourism investments, including a new ferry terminal to San Diego and a Maritime Traffic Control Center.

• Manzanillo-Cuyutlan, already nearing saturation, is being expanded to become Latin America’s top container port with five new terminals and over MX$88 billion in private terminal investments. The challenge remains to complete this expansion before bottlenecks worsen.

• Lazaro Cardenas is being developed as a multimodal hub, with the La Palma Island project, customs expansion, bypass roads, and terminal expansions from APM Terminals and Hutchison Ports.

• Acapulco, Veracruz, and Progreso are receiving tourism-focused, breakwater, and dredging projects, respectively. While these will increase capacity and regional relevance, achieving parity with high-demand ports like Manzanillo and Lazaro Cardenas is expected to take years.

Despite these efforts, domestic port behavior reflects national vulnerabilities. Cargo volumes from January to May 2025 fell 10.8% year-on-year, according to the General Coordination of Ports and Merchant Marine, underlining the pressure Mexico faces amid shifting global trade currents and localized congestion.

Air Cargo and Airport Infrastructure: Supporting High-Value Trade

Air transport is still a minor component of national freight, but it is crucial for high-value and time-sensitive goods. The SICT has allocated MX$126.6 billion (US$6.61 billion) to rehabilitate and expand 62 airports, including strategic projects at AIFA and new aircraft for Mexicana de Aviación to enhance domestic and regional connectivity.

However, expanding airport capacity alone will not solve the country’s logistics bottlenecks. For air freight to complement maritime transport effectively, last-mile and multimodal connections with manufacturing hubs and ports must be strengthened.

Air Transport Reaches Record Levels

2024 also became the highest year for air cargo and passenger movement in Mexico since 2019, according to the Mexican Institute of Transportation (IMT) in its 2024 Annual Air Activity Monitor.

Aviation remains an essential tool for national integration, tourism, business creation, and the domestic and international trade of goods. During 2024, air cargo activity also reached record levels, with 240,420t of domestic cargo and 822,710t of international cargo transported. Overall, 2024 surpassed pre‑pandemic air freight values by 23.7%, reaffirming aviation’s role as a strategic pillar for national logistics and trade.

Infrastructure Gaps and Supply Chain Continuity

The expansion of ports and airports, combined with new freight corridors and highway projects, is designed to improve supply chain continuity and support the manufacturing industry. But Mexico still faces critical gaps.

• Port saturation threatens the efficiency of Pacific trade corridors, particularly Manzanillo, which bears the brunt of Asian imports.

• Intermodal integration between rail, highway, and port infrastructure is still incomplete, creating regional imbalances.

• Customs and digitalization efforts are progressing slowly, so administrative bottlenecks can still offset physical capacity gains.

These gaps highlight that Mexico’s ambition to become a North American logistics powerhouse remains a work in progress. Without addressing these systemic challenges, infrastructure investments risk lagging behind growing nearshoring demand.

A Cautious Outlook for Mexico’s Logistics Future

According to Mordor Intelligence, Mexico’s freight and logistics market is projected to grow from US$124.4 billion in 2025 to US$162.2 billion by 2030, driven primarily by maritime trade and nearshoring. Yet, this growth depends on timely completion of infrastructure projects, improved regional parity, and effective risk mitigation against port saturation and global trade volatility.

Plan México lays the groundwork for integrating industrial growth with logistics infrastructure, but execution will determine whether Mexico can truly overcome its structural bottlenecks. Air and sea port modernization are critical steps forward, but until parity and connectivity are achieved across the network, the country’s supply chain will remain vulnerable to congestion, delays, and uneven regional development.

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