Tariff Shifts Reshape Trade, Port Performance in 2025

Tariffs are shaping global trade dynamics, shifting trade policies and regional economic divergence. This fluctuating environment is resulting in mixed outcomes for merchandise trade volumes, values, and port sector performance.

Tariff Anticipation Fuels 1Q25 Surge

According to the WTO, when the United States announced that new tariffs would enter into force on April 2, it triggered an acceleration in trade activity during the 1Q25, as importers rushed to frontload purchases. This resulted in trade volume growth surpassing expectations outlined in the WTO’s Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report released April 16. The baseline forecast of 2.7% annual trade growth assumed a continuation of early-year policies, while an adjusted forecast of negative 0.2% reflected the policy landscape as of mid-April. However, mid-June data projects a tepid 0.1% growth rate for 2025, indicating growing uncertainty.

Monthly trade data into 2Q25 confirms that import demand has started to ease following the 1Q25 surge, likely as companies begin drawing from accumulated inventories. Despite seasonality dampening 1Q25 quarter-over-quarter trade value, year-on-year merchandise trade value grew 4%, driven by robust volume increases and falling prices. However, disparities persist across regions and product categories, says the WTO.

North America led import volume growth at 13.4%, driven by machinery, pharmaceuticals, and precious metals. Africa posted the highest export growth in value terms (9% YoY), buoyed by shipments of gold, ores, cocoa, and copper. Meanwhile, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was the only region to experience both import (0.5%) and export (1.0%) declines.

On the export front, the Middle East and Asia saw strong performance at 6.3% and 5.6%, respectively. Product-wise, office and telecom equipment topped value growth at 16% YoY, while automotive products and fuels registered a 4% decline each.

Ports Under Pressure: Regional Disparities Widen

The uneven trade recovery is mirrored in the port sector. Fitch Ratings downgraded its mid-year outlook for North American and EMEA ports to deteriorating, citing tariff uncertainty and sluggish economic activity. Inflationary pressures and tighter consumer demand in the US have placed strain on port throughput and revenues, although contractual protections with tenants provide some financial cushion.

Conversely, ports in Latin America and APAC remain resilient. Latin America benefits from trade diversification and long-term take-or-pay contracts, while APAC ports, particularly in India, Indonesia, and Australia, are bolstered by low dependence on US trade flows and stronger regional integration.

In Mexico, domestic port behaviour reflects both global volatility and local challenges. From January to May 2025, cargo volumes fell 10.8% year-on-year, according to the General Coordination of Ports and Merchant Marine (CGPMM), underscoring national vulnerabilities amid shifting global trade currents. The disruptions at the Port of Manzanillo last May further impacted national and international supply chains. 

Financing Demand Signals Operational Strain

Increased trade policy uncertainty has intensified the demand for liquidity solutions. The use of supply chain financing programs has risen between 5%-10% among global firms, reports CNBC. 

“Demand for financing has clearly increased. Since the onset of tariff-related uncertainty, many companies have experienced reduced cash flow, driving a greater need for flexible credit solutions. Clients are either requesting extended payment terms — moving from 30 to 45 or even 60 days — or turning to supply chain financing tools to maintain liquidity. We have seen a significant rise in both approaches, with more clients relying on us for financial support to keep their operations running smoothly amid tighter margins and cost pressures,” says Rene Rojas, CEO, Crossmotion Logistics, in an exclusive interview with MBN. 

WTO Outlook

The WTO’s Goods Trade Barometer, released in late June, posted a reading of 103.5, above trend and signaling continued trade growth. However, this is likely due to early-year frontloading. The outlook may deteriorate as inventories are drawn down and new export orders, which dipped to 97.9, show contraction.

While some indices such as air freight (104.3), container shipping (107.1), and automotive products (105.3) suggest solid demand, others signal caution. The ongoing balance between global consumption recovery and tariff-driven frictions will determine whether trade can sustain its momentum or face a sharper slowdown in the 2H25.