Mexico’s Climate Plan Needs Action, Not Promises, Ahead of COP30

We are at a decisive moment. In 2025, Mexico must update its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0) and submit its third compliance report. More than a technical process, this is a political, ethical, and strategic opportunity to seriously reconsider our national climate roadmap. Time is running out, and our margin for action is narrowing. This is not about ticking a box, but about ensuring that what we commit to is truly aligned with the urgency of our times.

In 2015, Mexico was one of the first countries to present its initial NDC — a move that, at the time, was praised as a sign of climate leadership. However, the gap between commitment and action has widened. Current targets, such as a 35% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, are not supported by solid operational plans, clear budgets, or clearly designated institutions. These are goals that exist on paper, but have yet to materialize in real public policy. And in that gap, urgency dissipates.

This year, Mexico has also updated its National Climate Change Strategy, Vision 10–20–40, a document that sets long-term direction. On paper, it is a valuable and ambitious instrument. But unless it is clearly linked to the new NDC and translated into concrete measures — sectoral plans, regulatory actions, prioritized investments — its impact will remain limited. A vision without implementation is just another story.

The international context adds further pressure. COP30 will be held in Brazil, and this is no minor detail. Brazil will not only be the host but also a key player. With a renewed environmental narrative, it has reclaimed regional climate leadership, positioning the Amazon at the center of its agenda. Meanwhile, Mexico risks arriving at the summit with a weak or disjointed proposal, one that may be perceived as outdated. In a space where climate finance, global stocktakes, and regional alliances will be debated, timidity will come at a cost.

That’s why simply updating the NDC as a compliance exercise is not enough. We need a deep review. The new NDC must acknowledge that the climate context has worsened, that the window to stay below 1.5°C is closing fast, and that our responsibility is twofold: to meet our goals and to ensure they are just, viable, and meaningful for our own communities.

One of the key gaps in previous versions has been adaptation. Mexico is a highly vulnerable country — we see it every year through stronger hurricanes, prolonged droughts, out-of-season wildfires, and ecosystem loss. Yet, our NDCs have prioritized mitigation, leaving adaptation underdeveloped, underfunded, and institutionally weak. This has to change. Climate justice is impossible without territorial resilience.

Equally, a just energy transition must take center stage. This is not just about reducing emissions, it’s about transforming our energy model without leaving anyone behind. Now more than ever, we must connect climate action with social policy, inclusive economic development, and energy sovereignty. In this context, technologies like biogas and biomethane offer tangible, accessible opportunities. These are solutions that promote a circular economy, create rural jobs, and connect the environmental with the social.

But for this to happen, they must stop being marginal. They need to be explicitly included in the new NDC, supported with financing schemes, clear regulation, training programs, and monitoring mechanisms. Mexico cannot keep relying solely on large-scale projects or high-cost, long-term technologies. Diversification is part of resilience.

It’s also important to recognize that we are not starting from scratch. There is technical talent, academic networks, functioning local initiatives, and experience in multiple sectors. What we lack is articulation. We need to connect the dots, linking international discourse with national planning and local action. In this, the NDC can become a key instrument — if taken seriously.

The narrative we build in 2025 won’t be neutral. Every word we include in NDC 3.0, every target, every prioritized technology, every sector we engage in will send a message about the kind of country we want to be in the face of the climate crisis. The world will read it. So will development agencies, investors, and engaged citizens. And they will assess whether our words align with our actions.

This year’s process is not just technical. It is political, because it involves decisions. It is economic, because it determines resource allocation. And it is deeply ethical, because it defines the relationship we are willing to have with future generations.

The question is not whether Mexico can fulfill what it promises. The real question is whether what it promises matches the moment we are living through. Because every time we update an NDC, we are also updating our national narrative: who we are, what we prioritize, and what we are willing to fight for.

And that narrative is not built with isolated figures. It’s built with vision, commitment, and the will to act.